非診斷資訊對銀行不動產授信判斷影響之研究

A study of the Influence of Non-diagnostic Information in Bank Real Estate Credit Judgment

劉醇宏(Liu-Chun Hung)

指導教授 ： 劉立倫

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200800279

摘要

銀行為國家經濟金融之樞紐，在經濟發展中擔任資金供需之中介角色。銀行授信業務的良窳，不僅關係銀行經營之成敗，更重要的是透過授信業務所創造之貨幣信用，將深深影響國家的工商企業活動、社會大眾之需要以及國內經濟的發展。國際股市因為次級房貸風暴爆發而起了極大的波動，尤其是台灣股市受到外資進出影響，產生戲劇性的變化。
不動產授信審查管理的品質一直是現代民主國家金融體系下所深切關注的課；尤以在資源日益緊縮的情況下，更突顯其重要性。然由於授信審查管理績效的評估有賴於專業人員的判斷；因此，審查人員素質的良窳關乎銀行不動產授信審查管理與監督的品質。為了探討金融機構不動產授信判斷的專業性，本研究以透鏡模型的理論為架構，研究人類的判斷行為，藉以瞭解個人判斷的政策、衡量判斷的品質以及解釋判斷與真實結果差異的原因。
本次研究運用變異數分析模型（ANOVA MODEL），採實驗設計方式發展出二階段的調查問卷，在30位銀行內部行員的受測樣本實證中，由第一階段求出線索的標準化ω2值統計量及線索彼此間的第二階段交互作用，顯示判斷政策的強弱程度，研究結果顯示：（1）在判斷政策上，經驗會影響受測者判斷線索的捕捉；（2）在判斷品質方面，研究結果類似於以往的研究發現，即高經驗組的判斷「共識性」顯著優於低經驗組；（3）經驗程度較高的受測者研究結果不支持「無關線索」的加入，會顯著影響受測者的判斷決策，無經驗的行員在缺乏實務訓練的經驗下，其判斷政策被稀釋的情形較為明顯；(4)非診斷資訊會對判斷行為造成稀釋效果，而且稀釋程度會隨非診斷資訊的持續增加而增加；(5)非診斷資訊進入判斷個案的「結構」，會影響到判斷行為；(6)非診斷性資訊的增加，會造成低經驗程度判斷者的降低其判斷的「穩定性」；但當非診斷性資訊持續增加時，經驗程度較高的判斷者，產生判斷行為稀釋效果的可能性大幅增加。

關鍵字

判斷政策 ； 非診斷性資訊 ； 稀釋效果 ； 透鏡模型 ； 授信判斷 ； 判斷品質

並列摘要

Bank plays a key position in nation’s economy and finance, and plays interim role of the demand and supply money in economic growth. The well-being of a bank’s credit extensions business concerns bank’s performance, furthermore, through the business of credit extensions creates the confidence in the currency, and heavily influences the activities of industrial and commercial companies of a nation, the demand of people and the economic development. International stock markets are tumbled due to subprime mortgage crisis in the States, and the stock market in Taiwan especially affected and caused dramatic change by the arbitrage of foreign capital.
The quality of managing real Estate credit extensions examination is always concerned under the modern democracy of a nation’s finance system；especially under the shrinking resources, that shows the importance of its quality. Due to the performance of managing credit extensions examination depends on the quality of the judgment of a professional；hence, examine the deed of the professional will get the quality of examination, management and supervision of a bank’s Real Estate credit extensions. In order to analyze the specialty of the real estate credit extensions of a financial institution, this study use the lens model theory as framework, to research the judgment making behavior of human beings, and to understand a man’s judgment making strategy, measure the quality of judgment making and to tell the difference between real result from the judgment.
The study uses ANOVA MODEL, adopts experimental design to develop a two stage survey. Among 30 evidence surveyed samples of bank clerk, from the first stage to get the element of statistics standard variance ω2, and the elements second stage inter-reaction, to reveal the intensity of the judgment strategy. The study shows：（1）On judgment strategy an examinee‘s experience will influence his adoption of judgment element；（2）On the quality of judgment, the study shows the similar result as the previous research, that is one with more experience his judgment is「obviously」superior to the one with less experience；（3）Examinee with more experience is less related to the increased 「unrelated element」and his judgment strategy; Examinee with no experience and short of practical training experience, his judgment strategy is more obviously diluted；(4) Non-diagnostic information will cause judgment behavior the dilution effect, the dilution effect will be more intense as the Non-diagnostic information intensifies；(5) Non-diagnostic information put into judgment’s「structure」will influence judgment behavior；(6)As Non-diagnostic information increases, it will cause the less experience judgment to downgrade his judgment’s「stability」；but as Non-diagnostic information keep increasing, the more experience judgment will increase the possibility of produce the judgment behavior dilution effect.

並列關鍵字

Non-diagnostic information ； dilution effect ； policy of judgment making ； lens model ； credit extensions judgment ； quality of judgment making

參考文獻

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