存活分析模型於股權型群眾募資之探討

The Study of Equity Crowdfunding for Survival Model

吳佳育(Chia-Yu Wu)

指導教授 ： 陳若暉

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201600395

摘要

近年來全球掀起創業熱潮，新創企業因為資源不足且規模較小，較不易募集資金。群眾募資的出現，解決了新創企業籌資不易的問題，提供了新創企業一個快速且方便的籌資管道。群眾募資平台上並不是所有提案都能成功募資，提案者主要目的為成功募集資金，對於提案的設計與內容，規劃出吸引出資者投資意願，以增加成功募資機率。過去研究鮮少以股權型平台做為研究樣本。本研究欲以股權型群眾募資平台為研究對象，選取平台成立日期至2016年1月268件成功募資提案，將樣本先依照募資期限、提案者性別與產業類別分類，運用Cox比例危險模型探討影響募資成效之因素及影響程度。再以參數分配模型找出提案存活最適預測模型，供未來提案者之參考。
本研究實證結果歸納如下:
一.各變數與成功募資平均天數均有顯著關連性。因此，影響募資成效的因素有目標金額、提案領導者性別、社群網路按讚數量、股權提供比率、企業規模、企業價值、提案產業類別、預期收益。比較各模型之概似值與AIC值後，參數分配模型結果顯示，樣本資料隨著募資期限減少、依提案領導性別分類或者是以提案產業類別分類，建立之募資提案存活最佳預測模型均為Gompertz分配模型。
二.具有提升成功募資可能性的因素有提案者為女性、提案產業類別為非科技業和社群網站按讚數量。代表女性提案者具有較大的影響力，應證了創業性別結構的轉變，創業不再是男性的專利，而提案按讚數量代表受歡迎程度，越多就能吸引越多投資者出資。另外，非科技業提案較能吸引投資者出資，於平台上也具有良好的募資成效表現。而具有降低成功募資可能性的因素為企業價值。
三.比較不同模型結果，可發現Gompertz模型結果，各變數影響募資成效的方向較一致，且符合本研究預期影響方向，像是提案者性別、社群網站按讚數量、企業規模、企業價值、產業類別與預估收益等。

關鍵字

群眾募資 ； 股權型 ； 存活分析模型

並列摘要

Recent years global business boom set off new ventures because of its lack resources, smaller scale, and more difficult to raise funds, the emergence of crowdfunding not only solves the fundraising problem for new enterprises, but also provides a new venture for a quick and easy financing pipeline. Because not all the projects can be successful funding, the main purpose of the funder in crowdfunding platform was to eagerly obtain successfully funding. How to attract inventors and increase the successful funding rates will be concerned with the funder. Previous studies were rarely to equity-based platform as a research sample.This research examined equity-based crowdfunding platform’s 268 successfully funded projects as our sample since the establishment date of platform to January, 2016. This paper classified for funding period, gender and industry categories. The study employs Cox proportional hazards model to explore about the influent factors of project success and influence level. Then, the parameter regression model was used to find out the optimal allocation model references for future studies.
The empirical results were as following:
(1).There were significant relationship between variables and the average days of successful funding. Thus, the influencing factors are fund target, the project of gender, the thumbs-up numbers by Facebook, equity offering, firm sizes, firm value, industry category, and expected return. After comparing the model of likelihood values and AIC values, the result of parameter regression models showed that the best predicted model was Gompertz distribution model to establish the survival project based on crowdfunding term, the gender, and the proposed industry.
(2).The possibilities of having successful funding factors were the project of female leader, non-technology industry project and the thumbs-up numbers by Facebook. The structure of gender entrepreneurship is changing, the male dominant entrepreneurship is no longer exist. Female became a greater influence. The thumbs-up numbers like popularity. The more thumbs-up numbers, the more likely the project to be success in attracting more investors to invest. In addition, the non-technology industry projects are able to attract investors having a good performance of successful funding on the platform. Also, the firm value reduced the possibility of a successful funding.
(3).The comparison of different results among model, the results of Gompertz model are more consistent with the influenced of all variables on a successful funding. This included the gender of the project, the number of thumbs-up by Facebook, firm size, firm value, industry category and expected return.

並列關鍵字

Crowd Funding ； Equity-based ； Survival Analysis

參考文獻

毛治文、卓世昇，2011，「盈餘管理與企業價值-聯立方程模型之應用」，會計審計論叢，1卷1期，頁61-99。

王志成、許永聲和劉政淮，2011，「上市櫃公司首次出現繼續經營疑慮後之動態分析」，證券市場發展季刊，23卷4期，頁27-62。

王蘭芬、張瑀珊和薛敏正，2011，「權益市值高估與代理成本間之關聯性」，當代會計，12卷2期，頁169-190。

江怡慧、洪志洋，2009，「台灣 IC 製造業廠商赴大陸投資之評估分析」，東亞論壇，464，頁63-79。

李馨蘋、張月瓊，2006，「股權結構與公司風險之實證研究」，中華管理學報，7卷4期，頁51-69。