人口結構變化對總體經濟之影響:以ASEAN國家為例

The Effect of Demographic Changing on the ASEAN Economies

閻氏莉(DIEM THI LY)

指導教授 ： 高一誠

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201600245

摘要

人口結構的持續性變化將導致人口規模及年齡構成的重大轉變，此將對全球經濟有顯著影響。儘管擁有潛在的嚴重後果，人口結構的緩慢變化，因不具有立即性影響，故在許多總體經濟政策的討論或辯論中，常不是人們關注的焦點。目前東南亞國家協會各國的人口結構之變化從總體來看還處於初步進入人口紅利，未來幾十年仍可享受人口紅利優勢，托起東南亞國家協會（ASEAN）的整個經濟體。但跟著社會的發展，ASEAN 國家也將面對人口結構變化-人口老齡化的問題。本研究陳述屬於ASEAN成員國家的人口結構變量如何隨著時間移動，並從實證角度分析此變化如何影響經濟增長、通貨膨脹、以及總儲蓄等總體經濟變量。根據實證研究的結果，本研究探討ASEAN各國人口結構變化對總體經濟的影響並提出建議。同時本論文也強調考慮在總體經濟政策決定中，人口動態與總體經濟變量之間相互作用的重要性。

關鍵字

人口結構 ； 人口老齡化 ； 經濟成長 ； CPI通貨膨脹 ； 總儲蓄增長率

並列摘要

The continuous demographic changing will lead to significant changes in population size and age structure, which will have a significant impact on the global economy. Despite the potential for serious consequences, the slow change in population structure, as a result of not having an immediate impact, it is often not the focus of attention in many general economic policy discussions or debates. The change of the population structure of the countries of the association of Southeast Asian nations from an overall point of view is initially entered the demographic dividend in future decades can still enjoy the demographic dividend advantage, hold up the association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) of the total economy. However, with the development of society, the ASEAN country will also face the problem of population structure change. This study illustrates how population structure variables in ASEAN member countries move with time, and from an empirical perspective to analyze how this change affects macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, CPI inflation rate, and total savings growth rate. According to the results of empirical study, this study discusses the impact of the changes in the population structure of ASEAN countries on the macroeconomy and puts forward some suggestions. This study also emphasizes the consideration in the macroeconomic policy decision, the importance of interaction between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables.

並列關鍵字

Population structure ； Aging population ； Economic growth ； CPI inflation ； Total savings growth rate

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