結合修正式德菲法與層級分析方法探討國防科技產業供應商評選模式之研究-以某公務機關為例

Combining Modified Delphi Method with Analytic Hierarchy Process to Discuss Research on the Selection Model of National Defense Technology Industry Suppliers - A Case Study of Public Service Organ

簡睿礽(Jui-Jeng Chien)

指導教授 ： 周永燦

中原大學/電機資訊學院/工業與系統工程研究所/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu202100031

摘要

國防武器系統屬於長壽期產品，平均裝備壽期達20~30年以上，尤其是外購武器系統隨之產生的「消失性商源及物料短缺」(Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages, DMSMS/DMS)問題，若不加以解決會使武器系統無法擔任戰備任務，並且增加武器系統全壽期成本、使裝備妥善率大幅降低，這也是三軍亟待解決的重要課題。一直以來國防科技研發機構擔負軍方原廠責任，負擔廠級維修、構改精進、委修料件研製籌獲，維持各系統戰備妥善能達到部頒標準。
近年來政府為扶植民間國防產業，及配合「振興經濟、擴大內需」政策，期望透過釋出非機敏性及戰備軍品委由民間機構參與研製修，運用業界資源與技術能量，建構國防供應鏈體系，創造軍民雙贏。
然而在國防科技釋放商源過程中，屢屢發生履約廠商並未如質如期達交個案，究其原因為國防科技研發機構在選擇合作廠商時，缺乏適用於消失性商源研製修供應商評選依據，故無法先期掌握供應商履約能力。因此，本研究擬建構一套適用於消失性商源研製修供應商評鑑模式及審查標準，供國防科技研發機構與軍工廠用以評選出具有研製修與生產軍規能量之供應商為合作對象，以降低研製修之風險。
本研究採用修正式德菲法(MDM)透過訪談及對專家與需求單位利用問卷調查，討論出顧客需求項目及供應商能力評估指標，並依據施測結果使用層級分析法(AHP)比較顧客需求項目之重要性，再以品質機能展開(QFD)將顧客需求項目及供應商能力評估指標結合，轉換成供應商管理績效指標。
本研究透過問卷探討建構此份審查標準，供國防科技產業選商參考外，對於有意參與國防產業廠商，亦可瞭解其評鑑標準予以補強，充分發揮國防產業供應鏈整體戰力。

關鍵字

消失性商源及物料短缺 ； 修正式德菲法 ； 層級分析法 ； 品質機能展開 ； 供應商評選

並列摘要

The defense weapon system can be used for at least 30 years. Thus, there will be a risk of Dimishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS/DMS). If no proper mitigation plan for DMSMS/DMS, there will be a higher maintenance cost for the defense weapon system from the national institute of defense technology and innovation. Worse still, the availability of the defense weapon system will be compromised. Therefore, it is crucial to mitigate or avoid DMSMS/DMS to get defense weapon system well prepared for any national security mission in the future.
In recent years, to fullfill the national policy of "revitalizing the economy and expanding domestic demand", the national institute of defense technology and innovation has started to collaborate with 3rd party vendors for non-confidential and combat readiness parts manufacturing and maintenance. Such collaboration will enable our government to build up the national defense weapon system supply chain in the country. However, vendor qualification is of utmost importance and the prerequisite in the supply chain set up. Only when the qualified vendors are selected, the national institute of defense technology and innovation will be able to complete the outsouring projects within the time and cost allocated by the government.
Therefore, the goal of this study is to construct a vendor qualification system for the national institute of defense technology and innovation to work with the qualified vendors in military manufacturing and maintenance. We leveraged the Modified Delphi Method (MDM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to conduct the vendor qualification using questionnaires. Further, the sudy is completed using Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to convert the results into the vendor performance management strategies. Ultimately, this study served as a reference and guideline for both the national institute of defense technology and innovation and 3rd party vendors who want to join this field to build up the defense weapon system supply chain.

並列關鍵字

DMSMS ； MDM ； AHP ； QFD ； Supplier selection

參考文獻

1　英文文獻

Choi, T. Y., Hartley, J. L. (1996). An exploration of supplier selection practices across the supply chain. Journal of operations management, 14(4), 333-343.

Chowdhury, M. M. H., Quaddus, M. A. (2016). A multi-phased QFD based optimization approach to sustainable service design. International Journal of Production Economics, 171, 165-178.

Dalkey, N. C. (1969). The Delphi method: An experimental study of group opinion. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.

Dickson, G. W. (1966). An analysis of vendor selection systems and decisions. Journal of purchasing, 2(1), 5-17.