臺灣平均房價與總生育率之相關性研究

本研究是探討臺灣平均房價對生育率之影響。使用的樣本資料為從2002年到2011年之臺灣縣市升格化後的19個縣市，除了平均房價，本研究尚選取可能會影響生育率的縣市總體因子，如平均每戶可支配所得、失業率、女性勞動參與率，並使用OLS模型與縣市固定效果模型(County Fixed Effect Model)來進行實證分析。本研究以OLS模型估計的結果顯示，臺灣平均房價上漲對生育率呈現出負面影響，符合一般預期的結果。但利用縣市固定效果模型的結果顯示，臺灣平均房價上漲其實對生育率無顯著影響，其中北部地區有些微的正向影響，其可能原因為臺灣自有住宅比例高，因此帶動了財富效果，讓國人願意去生育子女，或者可能房價的資料被平均化，因此呈現出正面影響。

關鍵字

生育率；平均房價；平均每戶可支配所得；失業率；女性勞動參與率

並列摘要

This study aims to estimate Taiwan average housing prices effect on fertility rate. Analysis sample are Taiwan counties including19 upgrading counties from 2002 to 2011.In addition to the average housing price, this study also controls for average household disposable income, unemployment rate, female labor force participation rate of each county. The empirical model uses OLS model and County Fixed Effect Model. OLS estimates show that average housing prices have negative effects on fertility in Taiwan. This is conformed the generally expected results. The estimates of County Fixed Effect Model show that average housing prices have no significant effects on fertility, and positive relations are found in counties of north. The possible reasons may be that the high proportion of Taiwan's own house lead to wealth effect, so that people are willing to have more children. Other reason may come from the limitation of analysis sample.