台灣借貸行為與銀行開放政策的探討:應用差異中的差異法

台灣各地方數十年前普遍存在者互助會等非正規金融，對台灣民間借貸得活絡有著非常大的貢獻，在金融改革時期扮演者重要的角色，直到現在雖然各地依舊有像互助會或各種合作社的存在，但是在科技發展並與世界接軌的現代，央行與銀行等正規金融還是社會借貸的主流。本研究根據相關研究歸納認為台灣在1990年代初的銀行私有化政策有效改善了台灣的金融體制，成功得使銀行民營化，活絡了產業間借貸，長期而言對台灣平均所得有正向幫助的。然而，正規的金融借貸可以滿足資金的需求嗎？真正取代了非正規金融的功能嗎？本研究擴大探討借貸的層面，不只侷限於非正規金融，而是包含正規金融的分析。故本研究使用行政院主計處1981年到2015年家庭收支調查資料，利用差異中之差異法(Difference in Difference Model，DID)將35年份的資料，形成大數據(Big Data)進行迴歸分析，以台灣總體的角度探討台灣借貸行為和銀行私有化政策之間的關係。研究結果發現在銀行私有化政策實施過後，台灣的借貸與投資成長，雖整體而言平均所得上升，但是以第一級產業來說，借貸都集中在中高所得者，故產業中貧富差距可能導致更加擴大。第二級產業和第三級產業都會因為政策開放使平均所得上升，第三級產業所得上升的幅度較第二級產業高。此外本研究發現投資購買耐久財(Durable)對所得有正向幫助，有助於產業成長，也因為投資者有購買耐久財的需求使借貸參與有所成長。

關鍵字

銀行私有化政策；借貸；家計收支調查；耐久財

並列摘要

There had been many informal finances such as Rotating Savings and Credit Association (ROSCA)that contributed a lot for the loan behavior of Taiwan in various places for decades. And it played an important role in the financial reform period, although there are still existing some ROSCAs or kinds of cooperative in various places until now, but in the modern with technological development and connecting with the world, the formal finance like central bank and banks are still the mainstream of loan behavior in society. This study think that the privatization policy in Taiwan in the early 1990s effectively improved Taiwan's financial system according to related studies, and it caused bank privatization successfully, activing the loan between industry, then it has positive help for the average income of Taiwan in long term. However, could formal finance meet the demand of funds? Did it really replace the function of informal finance? This study expanded to explore the level of loan, the analysis not only limited to informal finance but also including formal finance. So this study uses the household income and expenditure survey data from 1981 to 2015 conducted by Directorate General of Budget, applying Difference-in-Difference method(Difference in Difference Model，DID) to turn the 35years of data into Big data to get on regression analysis, investigating relationship between the loan behavior in Taiwan and bank privatization policy with Taiwan’s overall economic perspective. The study find that the loan and investment of Taiwan grew after the implementation of the bank privatization policy. Although the average income increased in general, but the loan was concentrated on middle and high earners in the primary industry, so it might expand the gap between rich and poor in the industry. The average income would increase in secondary industry and tertiary industry after the policy had been opened. The growing rate of income in tertiary industry was higher than secondary industry. In addition, this study finds that buying durable goods are positive helpful for income, and it’s helpful for the industrial growth. Also because the investors had the demand of buying durable goods, making the loan participation grow.