決策過程中權變性決策行為之研究

The Study of Contingent Decision Behavior in Decision Process

林正昌(Cheng-chang Lin)

指導教授 ： 金樹人 ； 林清山

國立臺灣師範大學/教育學院/教育心理與輔導學系/博士(2000年)

摘要

本研究的目的在探討決策者如何權變性地運用決策策略來解決決策問題。研究一以「心力�精確性」交換模式為理論架構，採用條件語句系統建構各種決策策略的心理運作模型，並以初級訊息處理和相對精確性的觀點，做為心力與精確性的測量指標。使用電腦模擬的方法加以比較各策略在不同決策作業情境下，心力與精確性交換的情形。模擬結果指出：在耗用較少的心力和獲取較高的精確性的權衡考量下，沒有單一策略在所有的情境都表現的很好，亦即沒有任何一種策略適用於所有的決策作業情境。值得注意的是，在時間壓力高且決策作業變大的情境下，使用一些捷思策略來解決決策問題，所得的精確性高於使用規範性的策略所得到的精確性。因此，在心力與精確性交換的情形下，決策者會依據作業情境的變化，進而權變地運用決策策略來解決決策問題。
研究二以訊息處理論的觀點為基礎，採用歷程追蹤的方法監控訊息處理行為，並以大學生為對象進行兩個實驗。實驗目的在於設計與模擬研究相對應的決策作業情境，進一步蒐集實際的訊息處理行為資料加以檢驗模擬結果所衍生的預測，以及考驗決策作業特性中的作業變項與脈絡變項對決策行為的交互作用效果。實驗一主要在探討時間壓力、選項數量、和屬性數量對決策行為的交互作用效果。結果指出：時間壓力、選項數量和屬性數量三因子在所有的訊息處理行為指標上都沒有交互作用的效果；只有時間壓力和選項數量，或時間壓力和屬性數量在訊息使用量、選擇時間、訊息處理時間、和搜索變異性上有交互作用效果。實驗二主要在探討時間壓力和加權值分散情形對決策行為的交互作用效果。結果指出：時間壓力和加權分散情形二因子在訊息處理行為指標上都沒有交互作用的效果，只有在部分的行為指標上有主要效果存在。
最後，本研究除了對上述的研究結果加以討論之外，也對後續的研究方向及可能的應用提出相關的建議。

關鍵字

決策行為 ； 權變性 ； 電腦模擬 ； 決策策略 ； 歷程追蹤

並列摘要

The purpose of this study was to explore how the individual contingently uses decision strategies to solve the decision problems. In Study One, the effort/accuracy tradeoff model was used as the framework and the production system was used to model the mental processes of the choice strategies. The concepts of elementary information processing (EIP) and relative accuracy (RA) were also used to measure the effort and accuracy in the decision process. A computer simulation was undertaken to compare different strategies of effort and accuracy in various decision environments. The results suggest that no single strategy did well across all task and context conditions under the consideration of saving effort and gaining high accuracy. The finding indicates that under the higher time pressure and larger task size condition, several heuristic strategies were more accurate than the truncated normative strategy. Therefore, under the consideration of effort and accuracy tradeoff, decision-makers use a variety of strategies contingent upon a number of task and context variables.
In Study Two, the information processing perspective and a process-tracing technique were used to monitor the information acquisition behaviors. One hundred and twenty-four undergraduates participated in the two experiments. The purposes of these two experiments were to test how closely the efficient processing patterns for a given decision problem identified by the simulation correspond to the actual processing behavior exhibited by participants, and to test the task and context variables interaction effects on decision behaviors. ExperimentⅠwas designed to explore the interaction effects among time pressure, numbers of alternative and numbers of attribute on decision behaviors. The results suggest that there was no three-way interaction on information processing behaviors. There were only two-way interactions between time pressure and numbers of alternative, or between time pressure and numbers of attribute on some dependent variables-the amount of information, choice time, information-processing time and searching variation. ExperimentⅡwas undertaken to explore the interaction effects of time pressure and dispersions of weight on decision behaviors. The results suggest that there were no interaction effects on information processing behaviors. In general, actual behavior partly corresponded to the general patterns of efficient processing identified by the simulation.
Finally, these findings and implications were discussed in detail. The directions for future studies were suggested and possible applications were also recommended.

並列關鍵字

decison behavior ； contingency ； computer simulation ； decision strategy ； process-tracing

參考文獻

林清山、金樹人、林正昌（民86）：時間壓力、屬性數量及選項數量變化情境況對決策行為之影響研究。教育心理學報，29期，頁1-24。

林正昌（民82）：不同生涯決策型態大學生的決策行為研究－屬性數量變化與訊息呈現方式之效果分析。國立台灣師範大學教育心理與輔導研究所碩士論文。

Anderson, J. R. (1983a). The architecture of cognition. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Aschenbrenner, K. M. (1981). Efficient sets, decision heuristics, and single-peaked preferences. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 23, 227-256.

Beach, L. R. (1990). Image theory: Decision making in personal and organizational contexts. Chichester: Wiley.