天氣預測對捷運搭乘者影響之研究

隨著臺灣都市化程度提升，都市計畫轉變為「大眾運輸導向發展」，透過大眾運輸系統串聯起都市內的交通。而臺北都會區的捷運系統最為密集、使用人次最高，因此探討影響臺北捷運的使用因素最為重要。在過去，有關天氣對捷運旅運量的影響研究中，大多使用官方的觀測資料進行分析，較少針對民眾的「主觀決策」進行調查。因此，本研究除使用天氣的「觀測資料」分析外，主要目的為探討「天氣預測資訊」對民眾造成的影響，為調查民眾在接收到天氣預測資訊後的運具選擇行為，本研究以問卷作為工具，採量化方法進行分析，隨機發放問卷給新北市三重區、蘆洲區的民眾，共蒐集412 份有效樣本。研究結果顯示，在「觀測資料」中：「雨日」比「非雨日」有更高的進站人次；「氣溫」與「捷運進站人次」呈現負相關；而「空氣品質指標」無顯著相關。在「主觀決策」中：受訪者認為當天氣預測資訊為「下大雨」時改變運具的比例最高，依序為「高溫炎熱」、「低溫寒流」，而「空氣品質不佳」比例最低。

關鍵字

天氣預測；捷運；運具選擇

並列摘要

As the urbanization degree increased in Taiwan , the urban plan had been transformed into “Transit-Oriented Development”. It connected the city's traffic through the mass transit system. The MRT system in the Taipei Metropolitan Area had the most intensive MRT network and the highest number of uses, so it was most important to explore the factors affecting the use of the Taipei MRT. In the past, most of the studies on the impact of weather on MRT traffic volume used official “observation data” for analysis, and less on people’s “subjective decision-making”. In this study, it not only used the “observation data” analysis of the weather, but also investigated the impact of “weather forecast information” on people taking theMRT. In order to investigate people on the MRT affected by the “weather forecast information”, this study used quantitative analysis methods and questionnaire survey. Finally, 412 valid samples were collected from people in Sanchong District and Luzhou District of New Taipei City. The results revealed that in the “observation data”: “rainy days” had a higher number of the MRT usages than “non-rain days”; “temperature” and “the MRT usage counts” were negatively correlated; and “air-quality index” was not significant correlation. In the “subjective decision-making”: Respondents considered that when the weather forecast information was “heavy rain”, the proportion of changing the mode choice was the highest, followed by “high temperature” and “low temperature”, while “high air-quality index” was the lowest.