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  • 學位論文

複雜都市系統中計畫制定有效性的定理建構

Axiomatic Theorem Construction to Explore into the Effectiveness of Plan Making in Complex Urban Systems

指導教授 : 賴世剛
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摘要


都市是個複雜系統,新古典經濟學的均衡分析在面臨系統規則的突現時,解釋能力便受到本身的限制;Hopkins便對傳統觀點提出質疑,認為都市發展決策的相關性、不可分割性、不可逆性與不完全預見等特性(四個I)是均衡狀態不可能達成的主要原因,並且也是計畫能夠發揮功能的條件。本研究旨在探討複雜都市系統、決策的四個I特性與計畫制定三者之間的關聯性,並建構定理以證明之。     本研究回顧與都市發展決策的四個I特性、複雜科學與都市現象、規劃與複雜都市系統、二元關係,以及決策網路等主題相關的文獻,整理並評析之,作為三個研究主體之間關聯性的討論基礎。在模型建立上分為兩個部分,以二元關係(binary relation)與Han & Lai(2009)的決策網路規劃分析工具作為方法,將相關的模型要素如決策間的關係、決策網路的連結分佈型態和計畫的制定等模型化為可具體操作的形式,藉由「決策之三個I為複雜都市系統的充分條件」與「決策之四個I為計畫具有較佳效益的必要條件」等兩個引理,推論出「複雜都市系統的存在為計畫具有功能的必要條件」此一定理,亦即證明制定計畫有助於我們處理複雜都市系統。     本研究認為,決策群集之間相連結的「隨機效果」以及群集內部連結的「秩序效果」,是構成系統複雜性的兩股相反力量,彼此間的張力平衡使得決策網路處於「小世界」的結構狀態,具有高群聚係數與低分隔度數的特徵,而制定計畫的效益也是由這兩個效果而來。本研究屬於基礎理論的建構,雖然面臨模式本身的方法限制,但能於合理的假設中得到正面的證明結果,並藉由理解模型的限制以及所證明定理的有效範疇,提供後續研究之可能方向的建議。

並列摘要


A city is a complex system. The explanatory ability of a balanced analysis of neoclassic economics receives its own limit when faced with the emergence of system rules. Hopkins raised the question to the traditional viewpoint of the economic approach to urban development. He argued that the characteristics of urban development decisions, that is, Interdependence, Indivisibility, Irreversibility and Imperfect foresight (4 Is), are the primary causes that the equilibrium state is impossible to achieve, and are also the condition under which plans can function. This research is to discuss the relations between the complex urban systems, the 4 Is of decisions, and effectiveness of plan making, and construct a theorem to prove these logical relations.     This research reviews the literature related to the 4 Is of urban development decisions, complexity science and urban phenomenon, planning and complex urban systems, binary relation, and decision networks, and I regard them as the theoretical foundation of the relationship between three research topics as depicted. I divide the model building into two parts based on the approaches of binary relation and an analytical planning tool of decision networks and model the relations between decisions, the patterns of distribution of decision networks, and plan making in a concrete, operational form. According to the two lemmas, that the 3 Is of decisions are the sufficient condition for the existence of complex urban systems, and that the 4 Is of decisions are the necessary condition for why plans yield better benefits, I infer that the existence of complex urban systems is the necessary condition for why plans work. In other words, making plans can assist us to deal with complex urban systems.     This research argues that the "random effects" of the connections between decision clusters and the "order effects" of the connections inside decision clusters are two competing forces resulting in complexity of systems. The balance of the two forces renders the systems as "small-worlds" characterized by high clustering coefficients and low characteristic path lengths, and the benefits of making plans also come from the two effects. This research constructs a basic theory proving plan effectiveness. Although it is confronted by methodological limits, we can construct positive proofs from the reasonable assumptions and provide some suggestions for future research through an understanding of the limits of the model and the scope of effectiveness of the proved theorem.

參考文獻


Hopkins, Lewis D., 2001, Urban Development: The Logic of Making Plans. London: Island Press.(賴世剛 譯,2005,《都市發展:制定計畫的邏輯》。臺北:五南。)
Arthur, W. Brian, 1997, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
Batty, Michael, 2005, Cities and Complexity: Understanding Cities with Cellular Automata, Agent-Based Models, and Fractals. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
Buchanan, Mark, 2002, Nexus: Small Worlds and the Groundbreaking Science of Networks. W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.(胡守仁 譯,2003,《連結》。臺北:天下遠見。)
Debreu, Gerard, 1987, Theory of Value: An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium. London: Yale University Press.

被引用紀錄


洪旭(2014)。以展望理論觀點探究都市發展計畫決策的認知偏誤〔碩士論文,國立臺北大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0023-2811201414220577

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