經濟發展使得溫室氣體不斷地被釋放出來,造成溫室效應加劇,全球氣溫不斷地上升。臺灣是海島型氣候,氣候變遷的影響會較嚴重。未來氣候變遷對於氣溫上升、降雨改變等,都會影響到農業生產。 臺灣糧食作物生產幾乎都在田間中,主要的農產品有稻米、雜糧、蔬菜、水果,其中稻米為我國主食中栽培面積最大的農作物,而飼料玉米則為畜牧業所必需。 本研究使用DSSAT模型模擬SRES-A2情境下臺灣地區未來在短(2010-2039年)、長(2070-2099)期的稻米及飼料玉米的單位面積產量變化資料,運用1991-2005年的資料推估出這兩時期的平均單位面積產量成長率,再使用以投入產出分析為基礎的臺灣農業政策系統模型,加以估算在長期的氣候變遷對臺灣地區的農業部門造成的經濟影響。 結果發現在氣候變遷且2099年的投入狀況下降到稻米供應的臨界時,稻米的農場價格在SRES-A2情境會比維持氣候現況還要增加10.7%,單位面積農民所得會減少152.66%,單位面積毛產值會增加8.5%,收穫面積會減少4.45%,總農民所得會減少150.32%,總毛產值會增加3.67%。飼料玉米的農場價格會減少2%,單位面積農民所得會增加14.03%,單位面積毛產值會減少39.81%,收穫面積會增加29%,總農民所得會增加47%,總毛產值會減少22.63%。農業部門的單位面積農民所得會增加0.22%,單位面積毛產值會增加0.32%,收穫面積會減少1.15%,總農民所得會增加1.36%,總毛產值會增加1.46%。
Constant greenhouse gas emissions cause severe greenhouse effect and rising global temperature. As an island, Taiwan is foreseen to have great impact by climate change. Moreover, due to cereal grains in Taiwan are mostly produced in open fields, agricultural sectors are thus relatively vulnerable to the climate change compared to other economic sectors. Among staple foods such as paddy rices, grains, vegetables and fruits, paddy rices shares the largest proportions and are predicted to be influenced most. This study first compiles the data of rice production changes in short-term (2010-2039), medium-term (2049-2069) and long-term (2070-2099), which are simulated under the climate change scenario of SRES-A2 with DSSAT model. Then, this study applies the TWAPS (Taiwan Agricultural Policy System Model), an input-output analysis based model, to further simulate how various scenarios of SRES-A2 and changes in crucial input factors such as land, water and nitrogen fertilizer affect Taiwan’s agricultural sectors. Empirical simulated results of this study show that in 2099, if the crucial inputs are reduced to threshold value-reducing 10% land, 15% water supply, or 15% nitrogen fertilizer, then the sectors of paddy rice, feed maize, and whole agricultural sectors will be affected by climate change. Regarding the paddy rice, farm gate price will increase 10.7%, farmer income of per unit area will reduce 152.66%, gross production value of per unit area will increase 8.5%, harvested area will reduce 4.45%, total farmer income will reduce 150.32%, total gross production value will increase 3.67%. Regarding feed maize, farm gate price will reduced 2%, farmer’s income of per unit area will increase 14.03%, gross production value of per unit area will reduce 39.81%, harvested area will increase 29%, total farmer income will increase 47%, total gross production value will reduce 22.63%. Regarding the whole agricultural sector, farmer’s income and gross production value of per unit area will increase 0.22% and 0.32% reepectively, harvested area will reduce 1.15%, total farmer income will increase 1.36%, total gross production value will increase 1.46%.