地震災害人口回復力與高齡化空間分布及其影響因素--以921地震災區為例

Earthquake Disaster Resilience, Aging Population Spatial Distribution and its Influencing Factors-- A Case Study of 921 Earthquake-stricken Area

洪至萱(Chih-Hsuan Hung)

指導教授 ： 洪鴻智

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/不動產與城鄉環境學系/碩士(2015年)

摘要

聯合國國際減災策略(UNISDR)提出之「2005-2015兵庫行動綱領」，將國家與地區災害回復力(resilience)建構列入行動核心。許多災害調查報告亦指出，高齡者與人員傷亡或損失規模間存在緊密關係，且都市人口高齡化，亦可能降低都市災害因應能力(coping capacity)與回復力。故人口高齡化不僅為社會脆弱度構成要素，亦為影響社會回復力的重要一環。台灣即將邁入「超高齡社會」，應積極掌握人口高齡化對回復力的影響，作為建構整體災害調適策略之基礎。
當一地區面對大規模災害侵襲，政府投入為影響災後復原關鍵。過去國內研究大多著眼於颱洪災害，較缺乏地震災害相關探討，故本研究以回復力觀點探討不同程度的「地區人口高齡化」內涵及其災害回復力，希望建立「地區人口年齡結構 - 人口高齡化 - 災害回復力」之關係。在研究策略上，以村里戶政人口資料為基礎，利用集群分析法（cluster analysis）與統計分析建立「人口高齡化」與「地區人口年齡結構」的對應關係，及判別不同地區人口年齡結構所代表的人口高齡化程度之模型；本研究透過 921 集集大地震重建歷程之案例研究，分析台中縣、市與南投縣於災前人口高齡化與災後人口回復之空間相關性；利用迴歸分析探討各指標因素對人口回復力之影響，以得到不同人口高齡化程度之地區所表現的之災害回復力。研究結果發現，高齡人口、都市發展程度與社會經濟條件，是影響人口回復力之關鍵。此外本研究所建立之人口回復力評估架構與方式，可供各地區檢視人口回復力之狀況，並應用於整體災害調適策略的研擬。

關鍵字

921地震 ； 回復力 ； 人口高齡化 ； 地震災害 ； 調適策略

並列摘要

The "Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015" proposed by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), included national and regional disaster resilience construction into their core operations. Many reports of disaster survey indicated that, there is a tight bond among elderly population, scale of casualties or damage. The aging urban population may also reduce urban disaster coping capacity as well as resilience. Therefore, aging population is not only the key elements of social vulnerability, but also an critical impact on social resilience. Taiwan will soon enter the "super-aged society," and people should aggressively tracking the impact of population aging appose to resilience, as the foundation for the whole disaster adaptation strategies.
When a region faced with large scale disasters, the ability of adaptation is the key that influence disaster restoration. As previous studies focused more on the domestic Taiwan flooding issues and typhoon disasters, it is lack of earthquake-related exploration. This study will discuss different levels of “regional population aging” and its disaster resilience ability base on the perspective of resilience ability. We hope to establish the relations between "regional population age structure”, “population aging”, and “disaster resilience ability".
For research strategy, taking the village population data as foundation, cluster analysis and statistical analysis are used to establish correspondence between the "aging population" and "regional population age structure." And distinguish the population aging level model of different regions and population age structure. The 921 Chi-Chi earthquake reconstruction process is used in this research as case study.
By using regression analysis to explore various factors that influence population resilience, the data shown the catastrophic resilience in various population aging areas. According to the research, elderly population, urban development and socio-economic conditions are the keys to resilience force. Furthermore, the assessment framework and method established in this research paper can be used for observing region's population resilience conditions and applied to the overall catastrophe strategic simulation.

並列關鍵字

adaptation strategy ； 921 earthquakes ； resilience ； aging population ； earthquake disaster

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