本研究以兩家在光電產業具有代表性且為相互供應鏈關係之公司:明基材料及友達光電,於2008年至2014年之每季營收淨額、營運資金供給金額、營運資金需求金額及營運資金缺口四項變數。透過X-11古典時間模型分析兩家相互成為供應鏈之企業,檢定營運資金季節指數之穩定性、移動性及建構季節指數預測模型以進行績效準確度之評估。所得結果發現: 明基材料部分: 一、在淡旺季穩定性測試部分:營收淨額、營運資金需求金額及營運資金缺口金額等三項呈現季節穩定性顯著差異。 二、在淡旺季移動性測試部分:營收淨額、營運資金供給金額、營運資金缺口金額等三項變數皆呈現移動性不顯著狀態。 三、四項變數之季節指數部分:預測模型誤差率在3%以下,顯示模型達產業應用之水準。 友達光電部分: 一、在淡旺季穩定性測試部分:營收淨額、營運資金供給金額、營運資金需求金額及資金缺口等四項變數呈現季節穩定性顯著差異。 二、在淡旺季移動性測試部分:營收淨額、營運資金供給金額、營運資金需求金額及資金缺口等四項變數呈現移動性不顯著狀態。 三、四項變數之季節指數部分:預測模型誤差率在2%以下,顯示模型達產業應用之水準。
This research selects two Taiwan Optical Industry ( BenQ material and AU). The quarterly data from 2008 to 2014 of working capital supply, demand, shortage and sales revenue are collected. The X11 classical time series decomposition model is used for estimating seasonal indexes of these 4 variables. The result shows: BenQ: 1. The seasonal stability tests show that there are significant differences in three of variables. 2. The seasonal mobility tests show that there are significant differences among these three variables. 3. The MAPE for the research variables are less than 3%, indicating the forecasting model is accurate and useful. AU: 1. The seasonal stability tests show that there are significant differences in all of variables. 2. The seasonal mobility tests show that there are significant differences among these all variables. 3. The MAPE for the research variables are less than 2%, indicating the forecasting model is accurate and useful.