華人地區對於擁屋的需求相對強烈,除了受到傳統有土斯有財的觀念影響,是否因為不動產稅制存在缺失?不動產市場有利可圖?在資金大量投入不動產市場的情形下,不動產市場的穩定發展成為政府高度注重的課題。而調整稅負是政府維持市場穩定的手段之一,台北、香港、新加坡與上海等城市稅制規定各異,稅負的提高或降低,均會影響住宅交易雙方的交易成本與買賣決策,進而影響住宅市場的價格變化。本研究利用個案模擬、追蹤資料(panel data)分析全面性觀察不同地區及時間,檢視不同的不動產稅負對住宅市場價格的影響,發現華人地區普遍存在有效稅率偏低的問題,針對非自用住宅之稅制組合亦有調整空間,且施行之移轉稅並無有效達到抑制投資需求,以降低房價的效果。反而產生轉嫁、閉鎖現象,使得房價高漲現象持續。過低的持有稅長期以來亦不影響房價的波動,建議未來應從提高持有稅著手,以達平抑房價的目的。
The opinion of “real estate is the most important and only tool to accumulate wealth” is very popular in Chinese communities, which induces a very strong investment demand for housing. Since there is too much money flows into the real estate market, how to keep the development of real estate market be stable becomes one important issue for the government. This study tries to clarify whether the treatment of real estate tax is one important cause of this opinion by using the case study and panel data analysis method for four Chinese cities. From the case studies of Taipei, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shanghai, I find that the effective real estate tax rates are very low in these Chinese cities. From the empirical results of panel cointegration, I find that the effect of an increase of real estate transfer tax on housing price is positive due to the lock-in effect and tax shifting. Furthermore, the influence of an increase of real estate holding tax on housing price is not significant as expected which might due to the current effective tax rates are too low. To stabilize the housing price, I suggest that the government should increase the effective tax rate of holding tax instead of transfer tax.