中華職棒球員攻擊戰力模型之建置

Establishing an Evaluate Model for Attack Power of Chinese Professional Baseball League Players

林家鳳(CHIA-FENG LIN)

指導教授 ： 李孟峰

國立臺北大學/商學院/統計學系/碩士(2016年)

摘要

本研究旨在探討中華職棒一軍打擊球員次年仍存在於一軍的因素，研究方法為資料探勘(Data Mining)技術中的決策樹(Decision Tree)分析法。本研究以2010至2015年間之打擊紀錄與球員身高、體重、年齡等身體質量變數為解釋變數，次年度球員否為被解釋變數，歸納出影響球員次年仍留在一軍的因素，探討中華職棒一軍打擊球員之臨界標準，並導出預測模型。此預測模型可以提供球員在季中與季末自我檢視績效，也可以作為球團選才的參考標準。
本研究之結果顯示打席、年齡為打擊球員次年是否仍存在於一軍的最重要因素，能夠增加打席就能夠增加留任率。因為在嚴苛的競爭條件之下，教練團會經過種種評估決定一個球員是否能上場，表現受到肯定對來年是否留任會有正面影響是可預知的結果。另外球員依照本身條件發揮也是很重要的，年輕球員則可先發揮速度的優勢，接著持續砥礪球技邁向成功之路；反之當年齡增加，已經無法在速度方面與年輕球員力拼時，卻是可以利用經過磨練而進步的球技得到留在一軍的機會。

關鍵詞:中華職棒、決策樹、CART演算法

關鍵字

中華職棒 ； 決策樹 ； CART演算法

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to investigate the major factors of a regular player of CPBL this year who will still be a regular player next year. The method of decision tree analysis of data mining technique is applied as the research method of this study. The records in regular CPBL fielders from 2010 to 2015 are adopted in this study. Hitting records and their height, weight and age of a player are chosen as explanatory variables. A player will still be CPBL regular players next year or not is the response variable. The impact factors of CPBL players remains in the regular team next year is summarized. And critical standards of players in the regular team are investigated. Finally, a forecast model is also established to provide players as self-review in the end of season and to be the references of players choosing by baseball organization.
The result of this study shows that plate appearances (PA) and age are the most two important factors. Players with more PAs have higher probability to be CPBL regular players next year. Because under the sever conditions of competition, coaches will go through various assessments to determine whether a player can play the game. It is a predictable result that a player can receive affirmation performances then who will have a positive impact for staying in the coming year. The conditions of player himself are also very important. Young players can take advantage of the speed of the first and followed by constant practice to get success. On the contrary, when the age of player is increasing, although his speed can’t catch young players, he still can be a regular player by his playing skill.

Keywords: CPBL, Decision Tree, CART

並列關鍵字

CPBL ； Decision Tree ； CART

參考文獻

育運動大學休閒運動管理研究所 論文。

邱企彬 (2012)，2001~2010美國職棒大聯盟球員打擊率之研究，臺北市立體育

違約風險評估模型之研究－以CART分類與迴歸樹建模，中山管理評論，

張瀚文 (2014)，應用決策樹於水庫防洪減淤 最佳操作規則之研究-以曾文水庫

為例，國立交通大學土木工程系所碩士 論文。