氣候變遷影響下農民因應旱災的調適行為研究-以桃園市為例

Farmer’s Drought Coping Strategies and Adaptations under the Influence of Climate Change-A Case Study of Taoyuan City

李柏毅(Po-Yi Lee)

指導教授 ： 洪鴻智

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/都市計劃研究所/碩士(2016年)

摘要

自二十世紀中期以來，由於溫度上升導致全球氣候異常，氣候變遷已嚴重影響自然生態系統與人類環境。若著眼於我國近代氣候變化趨勢，臺灣未來短時強降雨的頻率上升、連續不降雨日數延長，將考驗我國面對旱、澇的應變能力。而乾旱是影響人類環境甚鉅的氣象災害之一，水稻又為需水量高之糧食作物，若因旱災導致稻米生產異常，將造成我國糧食供給產生疑慮。

故透過保護動機理論，探討農民是否為保障產量而採取調適行為減少損失，個人因應氣候變遷之積極調適行為模型係由保護動機理論延伸而來，說明人類資訊接收、經驗評估及調適行為評估的認知轉化過程，進而決定是否採取相應的調適行為。

故本研究期望透過風險知覺的概念，探討影響農民知覺的關鍵因素，並達成以下目的，一、建構影響農民乾旱風險知覺之架構；二、分析乾旱風險知覺與乾旱調適行為之關聯性；三、了解影響農民採取實際調適行為的關鍵因素。

從二項羅吉特模型與空間線性模型分析結果可知，在調適行為可行性評估與社會經濟因素兩大面向影響較為顯著，說明調適行為效益與自身條件是農民衡量調適行為的重要因素。風險知覺高值聚集於新屋區與楊梅區西側，是北部稻米生產重要地區，農民經驗豐富且清楚災害風險。

依據研究結果，建議可於風險知覺較低的地區，多加宣導未來氣候變遷對農業可能造成的負面影響，並推廣調適行為，使農民瞭解氣候變遷風險及因應措施。輔導農民增進農業栽培管理技術，不僅提升調適行為預期效果，更提升農民採取調適行為之意願。

關鍵字

二項羅吉特模型 ； 風險知覺 ； 農民 ； 調適行為 ； 空間自相關 ； 旱災

並列摘要

Since the mid-twentieth century, raising temperature had led to global climate change. This has severely influenced natural ecosystems and human environment systems. In Taiwan, climate change would increase the flood and drought risk. It also has led to an imperative challenge for us to cope with drought and flood hazards. Particularly, drought is one of the meteorological disasters that would heavily influence the productivity of rice paddies. This would decrease the security of food supply in Taiwan.

Based on the protection motivation theory, this article focuses on improving the understanding of farmers’ adaptations to reducing drought losses. We develop a model of private proactive adaptation to climate change, which is an extension of protection motivation theory. It can explain how farmers convert their received information, appraisal experience and adaptation appraisal into their risk perception and adaptive behavior. Thus, the major purposes of this article include the understanding of the farmer’s drought risk perception, adaptations to drought, and examining the determinants of the adaptations.

The results of the binary logit model and spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the appraisal of adaptive probability and social-economic factors played a significant role in determining farmers’ adaptive behavior. The benefits of taking adaptations and farmer’s social-economic conditions were also important factors in affecting adaptations. In addition, the farmers in Xin-Wu and the west of Yang-Mei districts had perceived significantly higher levels of risk than the farmers in other districts.

The findings also indicated that enhancing risk perception could help increase farmers’ adaptive behavior. To enhance farmers’ understanding of climate change risk and benefits of adaptations, it sould improve risk communication and agricultural cultivation and management techniques to reduce the drought hazard risk.

並列關鍵字

Binary logit model ； Risk perception ； Farmer ； Adaptations ； Spatial autocorrelation ； Drought

參考文獻

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