本研究旨在探討台幣匯率之變動受哪些因素變動所影響,並觀察在金融海嘯前後所受之影響。研究期間為2005年1月至2015年7月之月資料。本研究運用Pearson相關係數及多元迴歸分析探討對台幣匯率變動有顯著影響之因素,比較各自變數在不同設定模型是否有顯著差異經實證分析,其研究結果如下: 一、 淨出口及總出口皆對台幣兌美元匯率呈顯著的正向影響,總出口相對 淨出口影響台幣兌美元匯率的顯著性更高,而總進口在本研究呈現最顯著的負影響。 二、 表達消費者物價指數的CPI年增率呈現顯著的負向影響,而利率與貨幣供給量在全樣本及海嘯後亦呈現顯著的負向影響,海嘯前則不顯著。 三、 英鎊僅在全樣本時呈現顯著正向影響,海嘯前後皆不顯著,顯現對台幣匯率變動有間接影響力,日幣卻在海嘯前呈現中等程度顯著性的正相關,在全樣本及海嘯後皆不顯著,隱現日幣兌台幣匯率的影響已日漸式微。
This study attempts to search determining factors affecting Taiwan exchange rate, and to identify different influential factors between pre and post financial Tsunami periods. The research data is collected from Jan. 2005 to Jul. 2015. Statistical analyses include Pearson correlation and multiple regression models. The empirical findings are summarized as follows: First, net export and total export show a significant positive effect on Taiwan exchange rate. Total import has a significant negative impact on Taiwan exchange rate. Second, CPI shows significant negative effect in all periods; while Interest rates and money supply show significant negative effect in post financial Tsunami period. Third, the British pound presents significant positive effect on Taiwan exchange rate in full sample; while the Japanese yen presents moderate significant positive impact in pre-financial Tsunami period, indicating the impact of Japanese yen on Taiwan exchange rate is declining in post financial Tsunami period.