不同類型財務危機類型與環境下預警模式之建構 －盈餘管理、多角化策略、年報資訊揭露及公司治理機制的實證研究

Empirical Research of Earnings Management, Diversification Strategy, Annual Report Disclosure, and Corporate Governance Mechanism to Construct the Different Type Financial Crisis and Environment of Early Financial Distress Warning Model

黃群雁(Cyun-Yan Huang)

指導教授 ： 歐陽豪

崑山科技大學/商業管理學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本研究採用台灣1996年至2010年之上市櫃公司曾經發生財務危機之公司為研究樣本，以同一產業及公司資產總額近似之公司為配對公司，並採取1：4的比率來做為正常公司樣本。本研究之樣本數為危機公司224家，健全公司896家。本研究之目的是參照過去文獻及公開說明書的公司治理機制變數，針對不同類型的財務危機並建構財務危機預警模型，以比較與驗證模型對不同危機類型之有效性。

實證結果發現：在財務危機發生前一年至前三年(T-3)下全體樣本(1996年至2010年)財務危機之Logistic迴歸分析中：董監質押比率對公司財務危機的發生呈顯著正向影響；『全球金融海嘯危機』前(1996年至2006年)之Logistic迴歸分析中：董監質押比率對公司財務危機的發生為顯著的正向影響；獨立董事比率對財務危機為顯著負向影響；在發生『全球金融海嘯危機』後(2007年至2010年)之Logistic迴歸分析中：董監質押比率與董事長兼任總經理對公司財務危機的發生為顯著正向影響；裁決性應計數與控制持股對公司財務危機的發生為顯著負向影響。

『跳票擠兌』財務危機類型中股份盈餘偏離差與董監質押比率對公司財務危機的發生呈顯著正向影響；控制持股與獨立董事比率對公司財務危機為顯著的負向影響。『繼續經營疑慮』財務危機類型中：獨立董事比率對公司財務危機的發生呈顯著正向影響；裁決性應計數對公司財務危機為顯著的負向影響。『紓困財危』財務危機類型中：董監質押比率對公司財務危機的發生為顯著正向影響。

關鍵字

盈餘管理 ； 公司治理機制 ； 財務預警模型

並列摘要

This paper adopts listed companies which happened financial crisis to be research samples in Taiwan during 1996 to 2010. The matching companies which have near total assets and in the same industry. The criterion of matching principle is 1:4 to reduce the shortcoming of oversampling. The final sampling results are 224 companies belong to crisis companies, 896 companies belong to healthy companies. . The purpose of our study is to construct early financial crisis warning model. After literature review, and refer corporate governance variables in public prospectus, we adopt independent T test, to test whether there exist significantly different mean between financial crisis company and healthy company on earnings management, corporate governance and firm’ s characteristics variables.

The empirical results show that logistic regression analysis of the entire sample (1996-2010): pledging ratio of directors and supervisors has significantly positive impact on the company's financial crises probability. The samples of before global financial crisis show that pledging ratio of directors and supervisors has signigicanntly positive impact on the company's financial crises probability. While independent director ratio has signigicanntly negaitive impact on the company's financial crises probability. The samples of after global financial crisis show that both pledging ratio of directors and supervisors and chairman is also CEO have signigicanntly positive impact on the company's financial crises probability. While discretionary accrual and controlling shareholdings have signigicanntly negaitive impact on the company's financial crises probability.

In “chech can not cashing” type of financial crisis, deviation of voting risht and cash flow right, and pledging ratio of directors and supervisors have significantly positive impact on the company's financial crises probability. Controlling shareholding and independent director ratio have significantly negative impact on the company's financial crises probability. In “Continue to operate doubts " type of financial crisis, independent director ratio have significantly positive impact on the company's financial crises probability. While discretionary accrual has signigicanntly negaitive impact on the company's financial crises probability. In “Relief to survive” type of financial crisis, pledging ratio of directors and supervisors has significantly positive impact on the company's financial crises probability.

並列關鍵字

Earnings Management ； Corporate Governance Mechanism ； Early Financial Crisis Warning Model

參考文獻

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