連鎖便利商店經營風險之評估-模糊貝氏網路分析法之應用

Assessing a Convenience Store Operating Risk by Fuzzy Bayesian Network

張鈺民(Yu-Ming Chang)

指導教授 ： 張洝源

國立虎尾科技大學/管理學院/工業工程與管理研究所/碩士(2010年)

摘要

連鎖加盟業已成為成功創業的主流方式之一，隨著工商業與國民所得的成長，連鎖加盟行業的觀念與經營技術日漸成熟，且經過2009年金融風暴之衝擊，國內商業服務業的主流連鎖加盟店營收仍保持穩定，且連鎖加盟店之種類與日俱增，可視為二十一世紀的主流商業模式。國內連鎖加盟店以便利商店的發展最為成熟，且競爭情況也越來越激烈，導致加盟數成長趨緩甚至負成長，因此各便利商店極力尋找影響競爭之關鍵因素，以降低可能的經營風險。因此，本研究希望能尋找連鎖便利商店經營風險之關鍵因素，並推論各因素間之因果關係，再運用模糊理論將專家意見轉換成語意變數，透過模糊語意法整合各專家意見，依此導出貝氏網路之模型，以探討連鎖便利商店之經營風險並找出影響經營之關鍵因素，以利連鎖便利商店加盟者改善經營之風險。相較傳統之貝氏網路分析法，本研究提供一種更客觀之評估模式，加入模糊理論之運用，以考量專家決策判斷之語意模糊性，建立加盟連鎖便利商店經營風險之預測模型，從中發掘對經營風險有不利影響之關鍵因素，進而達到降低經營風險之目的。

關鍵字

連鎖加盟 ； 便利商店 ； 關鍵因素 ； 模糊理論 ； 貝氏網路

並列摘要

Franchise convention has been one of major ways for pursing successful business startup. While industry and commerce and national average income keep on growing, the notions and management skills of franchise convention have developed to be more complete. After the impact of 2009 global financial crisis, major famous franchise convention stores constituting the backbone of domestic commerce and service industries still kept stable sales increases. As the types of franchise convention store keep on increasing, franchise convention can be regarded as major commercial model in 21st century. Among domestic franchise convention stores, chain-convenience-store sector has reached the most maturity-development. Due to intensifying market competition, the number of new franchising of all franchise convenience stores has thus reduced and even shows negative growth. Each chain convenience store tries to search key factors for improving competitiveness as to lower possible business-operation risk. This research intends to sort out the key factors deciding chain convenience stores’ business-operation risk and then to evaluate how those factors correlate with each other. Fuzzy theory is then applied on converting experts’ opinions into linguistic variables. Fuzzy linguistic is used to integrate all experts’ opinions as to construct Bayesian network mode for analyzing the business-operation risk of chain convenience stores and sorting out key factors influencing business operations. It is hoped that the research results can help chain convenience store franchisers reduce their business-operation risk. This research provides an evaluation model more objective than traditional Bayesian network because fuzzy theory is applied in this research for appraising fuzzy linguistic that can examine experts’ decision-makings. The prediction model is established in this research for evaluating business-operation risk of chain convenience stores as to discover key factors deteriorating business-operation risk and to serve the purpose of lowering business-operation risk.

並列關鍵字

Franchise Convention ； Convention Store ； Key Factors ； Fuzzy Theory ； Bayesian Network

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