大陸鋼鐵出口與台灣鋼鐵價格的關聯性

The Relationships between the Steel Exports of the Mainland and the Steel Prices of Taiwan

連滿宗(Lien Man Tsung)

指導教授 ： 吳大任 ； 劉錦龍

國立中央大學/管理學院/產業經濟研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2015年)

摘要

鋼鐵產業的成長對國家經濟發展扮演相當重要的角色。由於鋼鐵產業所連動的產業類別很廣泛，因此鋼鐵成品的售價高低，往往與鋼鐵原料的成本價格有著緊密的關係。為此，本研究針對台灣鋼鐵產業發展、鋼鐵價格與鋼材種類等方向逐一討論。且以鋼鐵工業龍頭─中鋼為例，探討中鋼生產冷軋鋼板的價格為重要因素，分別探討冷軋鋼板製造原料、半成品(例如：鐵礦、廢鋼與扁鋼坯)與進出口同質性產品的數量與價格等相關因素。利用實證的方法，驗證中鋼冷軋鋼板價格及其影響變數間的互動關係，同時考量中國大陸近年來大量生產鋼鐵產品，且礙於中國國內市場內需持續不振，導致鋼鐵產品目前呈現供過於求的現象。為了積極消化鋼鐵庫存，中國政府實施鋼鐵產品出口退稅政策，企圖利用提高鋼材出口比例來解決國內產能過剩問題。運用迴歸分析，先後探討冷軋鋼板價格與其相關變數之價格與數量的關聯性，實證結果顯示廢鋼國內採購價格、扁鋼胚進口價格、廢鋼進口價格與數量、鐵礦進口數量、台灣冷軋鋼板進口數量等因素會影響到冷軋鋼板價格，證明當煉鋼原料價格或數量變動時，冷軋鋼板價格也隨之變動，意味著煉鋼原料需求增加時會造成冷軋鋼板價格的波動。

關鍵字

中鋼 ； 鋼鐵產業 ； 冷軋鋼板

並列摘要

Growth of the steel industry has been playing a very important role in the country's economic development. Because the steel industry has included a wide range of industrial category, the price of the steel products has a close relationship for the manufacturing costs of the downstream steal. The purpose of this study was to investigate the iron and steel industry development in Taiwan, the characteristics of the steel market and the types of steel in Taiwan.We take the China Steel Corporation as an example, which is the leader of Taiwan’s iron and steel industry. We aimed at exploring the prices of the production of cold-rolled plate. By discussing cold-rolled steel, raw materials, semi-finished products (including: iron ore, scrap metal steel and flat slab) respectively, we aimed at theory and analysis on the homogeneity of the import and export of products factors which related to the quantity and price.By using empirical methods to verify the interaction between the price of the cold rolled steel and its impact variables, we also take the mass production of iron and steel products of the mainland into account. The demand in the Chinese domestic market continued to be sluggish, and the supply exceeds demand. In order to level up the steel inventories, China implemented steel products export tax rebate policy, attempted to use to increase the proportion of domestic steel exports to solve the problem of overcapacity.With the regression analysis, the price of cold rolled steel has to explore the relevant variables, the empirical results show that the price of the scrap in the domestic market, import the price of the flat and the embryos in Taiwan that will affect other imported the price of the cold rolled steel. It is proved when changes steelmaking raw material prices or quantities, the price of cold rolled steel prices have also changed. Hence, the demand of the raw materials increases will cause the fluctuations of the cold rolled steel.

並列關鍵字

China steel corporation ； the steel industry ； cold -rolled steel

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