台灣電路板產品價量影響要素實證研究

The Empirical Analysis of Price and Volume on PCB Products in Taiwan

洪雅芸(Ya-Yun Hung)

指導教授 ： 吳大任 ； 劉錦龍

國立中央大學/管理學院/產業經濟研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2015年)

摘要

有鑑於過去電路板產業相關研究多以產業趨勢或企業營運分析為主，本研究將透過時間序列的實證原理，經濟學的生產要素及需求彈性理論之應用，探究影響台灣電路板與IC載板各項外生性與內生性變數的關連度。
本研究以台灣電路板與IC載板銷售量為應變數，首先考量外生性要素如美國與歐盟經濟成長率、中國電路板產品進出口單價、歐盟綠色法規與季節性淡旺季做為自變數進行時間序列之最小平方法(OLS)兩項產品各變數強度之比較，透過多元共線性與Drubin-Waston檢定與修訂，同時計算與比較此兩項產品需求的價格彈性之差異。其次，再以台灣電路板與IC載板的銷售單價為應變數，進一步比較此兩項產品受到國際銅價、國內電子零組件產業平均薪資、新台幣兌美元匯率與銀行利率之關聯性比較。最後，進一步進行此兩大類產品的單價預測作為自變數後，再以最小平方法(OLS)迴歸分析，接著同樣進行計算與比較此兩項產品需求的價格彈性之差異。
研究結果發現，台灣電路板產品的銷售量主要受到價格與季節性波動具顯著負相關，而以歐盟經濟為顯著正相關，需求彈性屬富有彈性；台灣IC載板銷售量則主要受價格波動與歐盟市場需求為主，需求彈性呈現缺乏彈性。在影響價格的內生性要素方面，新台幣兌美元匯率及銀行利率對台灣電路板產業呈現顯著正相關；相同變素影響對台灣IC載板產品單價則呈現不顯著。

關鍵字

電路板 ； 實證

並列摘要

In consideration of relevant researches regarding PCB industry, these analysis focused on industry tendency and firm management mostly. The following study would analysis regarding essential productive elements by time series and application of demand elasticity, in order to explore any relevancy of exogenous and endogenous variable for Taiwan’s PCB and IC substrate products.
For this study, first of all assuming the dependent variables to be total sales amount of Taiwan’s PCB and IC substrate. it take some exogenous elements into consideration to be independent variable like as economy growth rates of USA and Europe Union, import and export unit price of China’s PCB product, environmental regulation of Europe Union and seasonal fluctuations of industry, then toward OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression under time series in order to see the comparison of each variable intensity. It could proceed estimation and comparison simultaneously under multicollinearity, Durbin-Watson test and checking the difference of price elasticity between these two kinds of product.Secondly assuming the selling unit price of Taiwan’s PCB and IC substrate to be dependent variable, furthermore checking the relationship concerning these two kinds of product whether are influenced by global cooper average price, the average salary of Taiwan’s electronic components industry, foreign exchange rate for US dollar against New Taiwan Dollar and bank interest rate in Taiwan. Finally attempt to proceed the selling unit price prediction of the selling unit price of PCB and IC substrate by Taiwan industry further as independent variable and then perform OLS regression again to see the estimation and comparison regarding the difference of price elasticity by the demand of these two kinds of product.
According to the studied result, it discovers the sales amount of Taiwan’s PCB product is influenced mainly by the selling unit price and seasonal variation as significant negative correlation. It also appears the positive correlation with economy of Europe Union, characteristic of demand elasticity is elastic.The sales amount of Taiwan’s IC substrate is influenced mainly by variation of the selling unit price and demand of Europe Union, characteristic of demand elasticity is inelastic. Concerning the endogenous elements of price influence to Taiwan’s PCB, it appears positive correlation with exchange rate for US dollar against New Taiwan Dollar and bank interest rate of Taiwan; and the checked result to appear non-significant to Taiwan’s IC substrate by similar independent variable.

並列關鍵字

PCB ； Empirical Analysis

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