房價對生育率的影響-以台灣20縣市為例

The Effect of House Price Affects The Total Fertility —Take Twenty District of TAIWAN Area as an Example.

陳彥竹(Yen-Chu Chen)

指導教授 ： 劉錦龍

國立中央大學/管理學院/產業經濟研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2015年)

摘要

本文使用內政部不動產資訊平台的「房價所得比」資料與內政部戶政司網站「總生育率」、「粗結婚率」資料以及中華民國統計資訊網「失業率」資料，分析民國92年到民國103年間（共12年），台灣地區20縣市的房價所得比對總生育率所造成的影響。資料橫跨各縣市在此12年間所有數據，形成追蹤資料（Panel Data）形態，利用普通最小平方法(Ordinary Least Squares)與固定效果模型（Fixed Effect Model）分析。
實證結果發現，在此12年期間，不分縣市效果之房價所得比對於總生育率有顯著正向影響，其成因可能是因為房價負擔向來被視為全台前三重的北台灣三大都會區--台北市、新北市、桃園市佔台灣總人口數即約37%，而實證結果此三都會區之房價所得比對總生育率亦有顯著正向影響的房屋財富效果存在；在此同時此三都會區以外之城市卻無此房屋財富效果存在或不顯著，因此在人口數佔比大之情形下使得不分縣市效果之房價所得比對於總生育率有顯著正向影響。失業率遞延一期對總生育率有顯著負向影響。粗結婚率無論是當期或遞延一期，對總生育率皆有顯著正向影響，較特別的是其中當期粗結婚率之係數值相對較大，推測可能現代人奉子成婚之狀況已多過先結婚後生子的傳統情形。

關鍵字

房價所得比 ； 總生育率 ； 固定效果模型

並列摘要

This research used housing price index data in the real estate information platform of Taiwan Ministry of the Interior website & total fertility rate、crude marriage rate data in the Taiwan Department of Household Registration website & unemployment rate data in the National Statistics of Republic of China (Taiwan) website to analysis how the housing price of twenty districts in Taiwan main land affected the total fertility during 2003 to 2014（twelve years in total）.
Data form as a standard panel data. It included all data in the twelve years across each districts. We used the ordinary least squares & fixed effect model to analysis the data.
The empirical research result told us that the housing price has a positive significant effect on total fertility rate. The root cause might be the three top hosing loan loading cities-Taipei City、New Taipei City、Taoyuan City have the 37% population of Taiwan total population. The empirical results confirmed that the three cities might own the “home equity effect” which made the housing price and total fertility rate relationship positive. In the same time, the “home equity effect” do not exist in other cities. For the reason population rate of the three cities is large than population rate of the whole Taiwan area, we can get the result that the housing price has a positive significant effect on total fertility rate for whole Taiwan area. Unemployment rate has a negative significant effect on total fertility rate,but only the deferred Unemployment rate (deferred for one year）has it. Crude marriage rate has a positive significant effect on total fertility，no matter the current or deferred one (deferred for one year）. Especially the crude marriage rate has a much huge significant coefficient than deferred curde marriage rate’s coefficient.

並列關鍵字

house price ； total fertility rate ； fixed effect model

參考文獻

〔3〕蘇于婷 (2012)， 「臺灣生育率之研究」， 國立暨南國際大學經

〔3〕 內政部戶政司

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〔1〕 郭祐誠 & 林佳慧 (2012)，「勞動市場條件對結婚率下降之影

〔2〕 彭建文 & 蔡怡純 (2012)，「住宅自有率對生育率之長短期影