安倍晉三兩次執政時期貨幣政策之比較研究

The Comparative Study of Monetary Policies in Shinzo Abe's Two Ruling Periods

游皓勛(Hao-Shun You)

指導教授 ： 趙文志

國立中正大學/社會科學院/戰略暨國際事務研究所/碩士(2015年)

摘要

2012年底，安倍晉三第二度出任日本首相，主打「安倍經濟學」，欲挽救日本經濟脫離通貨緊縮的窘境。安倍經濟學內含三個經濟政策，其中以量化貨幣寬鬆政策 (Quantitative Easing Policy) 效果最為顯著，強調日本銀行應將通貨膨脹目標由原先的1% 提升至2%，並進行無限期買入資產操作。貨幣政策施行初始，日本股市大漲、日圓匯率急速下跌，明顯帶給日本經濟正面效果，亦展現出安倍晉三欲解決日本經濟問題的決心，同時也讓安倍在上任便擁有非常高的民意支持度。
　　然而，令人好奇的是安倍晉三並不是第一次擔任日本首相，他曾在2006年至2007年曾執政過一次，而他當時並沒有推出所謂的安倍經濟學。雖然各國中央銀行會針對國際經濟情勢調整貨幣政策，惟日本通貨緊縮情形已長達20年，安倍晉三卻在兩次執政時期決定以不同貨幣政策回應，故本研究認為此二時期的貨幣政策差異背後顯存在著非經濟範圍可解釋之原因。
　　先前文獻對於日本貨幣政策的研究大部分著重在經濟層面，例如探討90年代日本經濟泡沫的成因、日本經濟通貨緊縮之過程，或是專注於2001年日本施行量化寬鬆貨幣政策及其與2008年美國量化寬鬆貨幣政策之比較。然本文認為影響兩次貨幣政策差異之因素已非經濟層面能予解釋，故欲以政治面向探討，先瞭解過去日本經濟發展過程，再比較兩次貨幣政策差異，並結合安倍晉三修憲之意圖，連結其中之關係。

關鍵字

修改憲法 ； 日本貨幣政策 ； 安倍晉三

並列摘要

In the end of 2012, Shinzo Abe took office as Prime Minister of Japan again, and unleashed a series of economic policies, called Abenomics, pepping up Japan’s recession-hit economy. Abenomics is based upon three arrows of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms. The monetary easing had strong effects on various financial markets in Japan. By February 2013, the monetary policy led to a dramatic weakening of the Japanese yen and a 22% rise in the TOPIX stock market index, which supporting Abe’s domestic reputation.
　　But, it is not the first time for Abe to be in power. He was Prime Minister of Japan in 2006-2007, and he did not advocate any monetary policies, like Abenomics in that period. Although central banks would conduct different monetary policies according international economic situation, deflation have existed in Japan for more than 20 years. Why did not Abe require Bank of Japan to conduct monetary easing in his first ruling period if it is so effective? Therefore, the study is to research the non-economic factors behind monetary policies in Abe's two ruling periods.
　　In the past, most of literatures, focusing in Japanese monetary policies, were to research economic factors, such as Japanese asset price bubble, deflation in Japan’s economy, monetary easing in 2001, or the comparison of monetary easing in Japan and US; however, the study is to research Japanese monetary policies in Abe's two ruling periods in political aspect, and try to connect the relation between monetary policies and revision of Japanese Constitution.

並列關鍵字

Revision of Japanese Constitution ； Japanese Monetary Policies ； Shinzo Abe

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