本文使用賽局理論去分析台灣的兩個主要政黨:民進黨與國民黨和中國大陸互動的模式。 民進黨和中國大陸的互動模式採用演化賽局的模式分析,分析顯示若是民進黨長期採取對抗中國大陸的策略,好處會日漸減少,對自身的損害會日益增加,故民進黨在未來勢必會採取和中國大陸合作的態度。 國民黨與中國大陸的互動模式採用動態賽局與靜態賽局分析,國民黨使用動態賽局中排除選項的方式,避談政治統獨議題與中國大陸互動,而國民黨跟中國大陸較為友好,中國大陸為了不破壞在台灣民眾心中慢慢建立的友善形象,短時間內雙方的默契會是發展經濟而不談政治。 未來兩黨均與中國大陸合作,中國大陸對台則是採「以經促統」的策略,因此在合作之餘兩黨必須保護好主權,避免中國大陸矮化台灣。
This paper intends to study and analyze the interaction concerning Taiwan’s DPP and KMT with China from the viewpoint of game theory. The interactive strategy between DPP and China are modeled as Evolutionary Game. If DPP take strategy which is against China for a long time, the benefits would be diminishing, and damage would be increasing. Therefore, DPP will be bound to cooperate with China in the future. The interactive strategy between KMT and China are modeled as dynamic game and normal-form game. KMT exclude the way that talking political issues about unification or independence. However, KMT is more friendship with China; China won’t break the friendly image in the minds of Taiwanese people. Therefore, KMT and China will improve economic because China wants to build and maintain the friendly image. Both of them won’t talk political issues about unification or independence in the short time by unwritten rules. KMT and DPP will cooperate with China in the future. However, the strategy of China is using economic influential. Economic influential of China is a great power to affect Taiwan. For this reason, both of two parties must take care of the Sovereignty of Taiwan.