1978年中國實施改革開放政策之後,綜合國力快速成長,不論在政治穩定、經濟發展及軍事武力等各層面,均在國際社會具有相當影響力,所以,「中國威脅論」也相對應運而生。因此,中國為消弭世界對「中國威脅論」之疑慮,穩定周邊國家關係,便於2003年提出「和平崛起」之論述。雖然中國是否真的和平崛起尚待時間檢驗,但臺灣在這全球化的時代潮流下,如何因應中國和平崛起對我國家發展之影響至為重要。 本研究試從軍事面向來分析。中國一方面不願放棄武力犯臺,一方面又倡導和平統一,寄望臺灣人民放棄國家主權,如此軟硬兼施的兩手策略,在我對中國經貿依賴日深且兩岸經貿交流頻繁之際,如何確保我國家安全,是當前政府必須正視且嚴肅面對的重要課題。然而二次政黨輪替後的和解訊號,是否提供兩岸新的和平契機呢?本研究將透過歷史研究途徑,並採用文獻分析研究法,結合兩岸與國際現勢,透過「(3+1)i決策模型」與「層次分析」理論的融合來檢視、探討中國和平崛起中的臺灣國家安全,並著眼於兩岸推動建立軍事互信機制這件事上,並從中探究中國和平崛起對臺灣未來軍事發展之影響,並對臺灣未來軍事發展的做出建議。
China instituted economic reforms and an “open door” policy beginning in 1978, resulting in a rapid growth in national power. Due to military might, China has become very influential in international affairs. Accompanying the rise in national stature, however, is the fashionable “Chinese Aggression” theory crafted by those who feared China’s growing power. To calm the fear of “Chinese Aggression”, China tried to stabilize her relationship with neighboring countries and espoused the “Peaceful Emergence” slogan in 2003. Although the reality of peaceful emergence remains to be seen yet and to be proven by time, how Taiwan reacts and responds to its impact is critical to the future of the nation, particularly working in conjunction with the modern trend of globalization. This study focuses on two areas for in-depth analysis: Politics and military. China has yet to give up the threat of forceful reunification through military conquest, at the same time she hopes to win over the people of Taiwan for peaceful reunification through Taiwan’s increasing reliance on trade with China. Facing this two-prone approach, the government of Taiwan needs to seriously confront China’s “peaceful emergence” to ensure continued sovereignty and security of Taiwan. Is the signal of cross-strait reconciliation after the second party alternation in power truly capable of providing a chance of peace for Taiwan and China? This study is going to use the method of historical approach, literature analysis and (3+1)i-decision making model to observe establishment of cross-strait Military Confidence-Building Measures between China and Tiwan and further discuss and study the factors influence security policy of Taiwan under the rise of China.
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