從多位學者的觀察中,得以了解東南亞區域權力結構,而根據Emmers所譜出的權力運作影像,近年的南海爭端中動作最為活躍的越南,作為區域內、外權力互動的樞紐,本研究因此納入兩大強權-美、中和鮮明的越南,試圖探討東南亞權力博弈的型態。 為了同時探討三個國家的互動,而選用三位體理論,並在第二章重新理清該理論的系譜,在研究過程中發現三者共組的權力結構的制約力偏弱,因此發展出合適的研究框架,以連結內、外部條件的互動,並分別於第三章和第四章建構內部和外部條件;由於美國的戰略性質和全球場域的活動,得以成為研究架構中的投入因子。 第三章根據三方的國防報告書和其他學者的研究,得以描繪其戰略本質上的限制、近二十年的演變軌跡、以及在東南亞區域的樣貌,並以戰略地圖方式統整之。 第四章依據三方的軍事支出建立權力位階和結構,並結合外部結構、內部戰略樣貌、和三個決策原理,整合出該環境下的三邊互動模式,而後以美國的常態性戰略和特定性戰略為投入因子,觀察自1995年至2016年的三邊關係變遷。
We get to know the power structure in Southeast Asia from many scholars’ observations. Emmers has constructed a pattern of operation in this subregion, Vietnam, the most active in South China Sea dispute, is the pivot of interactions between internal and external powers. Therefore, the research includes the US and China, the two major powers, and Vietnam, to analyze the power interaction in Southeast Asia. Triad theory is chosen to probe the interactions between these three countries simultaneously, and in chapter II, it is listed systematically. We recognize that the power constructed by the three nations has weaker restriction on their actions, and hence a more proper study structure is developed to connect the internal factor (strategies) with the external one (structure). In chapter III and IV, the internal and external conditions are built up respectively. Due to the characteristics in U.S. strategy and its worldwide projection, U.S. strategy can be set as an element in this research. In chapter III, referring to the defense reports of the three nations and other researches, we present the strategy restrictions, the strategy vicissitude within two decades, and the appearance in Southeast Asia, all in the strategy map. In chapter IV, the hierarchy and structure of power built by the military expenditure, along with the external structure, internal strategy appearance and three kinds of decision rules, are integrated into a trilateral-interaction model. The following is the observation of trilateral relationship from 1995 to 2016, including the element of the normal strategy and directed strategy of the U.S.