本論文之研究目的在應用時間序列分析模型與方法在油價與玉米價格間的相關性研究,在影響玉米價格上漲的諸多因素中,石油和玉米的相關性成為眾人焦點,尤其在近年石油價格逐步上漲中,利用石油當作生產的能源是不是走到一個困境?本研究期提供未來政府政策施政的方向,在未來石油因產量到達頂點而需求量卻持續上升的趨勢中所導致原油價格無可避免上揚,若其亦帶動糧食價量為之走揚,那政府除了因應原油價格上漲是否需同時考量糧食價格與原油價格的連動性。 本文利用Johansen共整合分析得到以下實證結果。本研究顯示在2000年至2007年共96筆月資料下,原油和玉米價格在長時間趨勢下,兩者不存在長期均衡穩定的關係。 本研究結果不支持石油價格飛漲導致生質能作物價格的上升。本文還提出了若干建議,包括更長的研究期間或考量更多的變數,如作物產量和人口等。
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the price relationship between oil and bio-energy crop of corn by employing the time series model. In the part few years, the soaring oil price has brought the concerns that the energy problem will result in the food problem. Is the oil price and bio-energy crop price cointegrated?This paper employs the Johansen cointegration test to investigate the long run relationship between oil price and bio-energy crop price. This study provides the future direction of government policy. The empirical results show that these does not exist long run price relationship between oil and bio-energy crop of corn during the period of January, 2000 and December, 2007 with a total 96 observations. This result does not support that the soaring oil price result in the rising crop price. This paper also propose several suggestions for further study in the future, including the longer study period, the more variables such as crop production volume and population, etc.