以資料視覺化及資料探勘技術探討COVID-19對國家經濟的衝擊研究

Impact Study of COVID-19 to National Economy Using Data Visualization and Data Mining Techniques

林家如(Chia-Ju Lin)

指導教授 ： 劉振隆

義守大學/智慧科技學院/資訊管理學系/碩士(2021年)

摘要

本研究主要探討新冠肺炎疫情具體給世界經濟帶來之影響的認知程度、各國因應此次衝擊之政策是否帶來預期效果，故本研究將新冠肺炎疫情發生之時間軸與各項金融資訊交叉比對後，做出敘述性資料分析，接著進行資料探勘技術中的分群分析演算法進一步驗證。本研究結果顯示：
1.新冠肺炎大流行的背景下，國家經濟相關數據受其影響不顯著，透過資料視覺化及敘述分析後，發現當疫情確診新增率上升時，指標性經濟資料卻不一定會隨著疫情確診趨勢線而變化。
2.階層式分群法結果為世界GDP所衍生的前幾大經濟體的分群狀況，是基於該國家GDP所佔世界GDP的比例做出分群。
3.整體經濟受新冠肺炎疫情影響程度不一致。以GDP成長率為例，某些國家在2019年至2020年反而增加，不僅沒有因疫情而有顯著影響，經對比後呈現近幾年有上升趨勢。
4.2020年新冠肺炎疫情大肆流行於世界各地，意料之外的是期貨的漲跌幅及其穩定性相關於疫情的影響程度比起其他經濟數據一致。

關鍵字

新冠肺炎 ； 資料視覺化 ； 資料探勘 ； 群集分析

並列摘要

This study explores the degree of awareness of the specific impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP, also named COVID-19) epidemic on the world economy, and whether the policies of various countries in response to this shock will bring the expected effects. Therefore, this study cross-compares the timeline of the occurrence of the COVID-19 epidemic with various financial information after the descriptive data analysis, and then verifies the cluster analysis algorithm in data exploration technology. The results of this study show:
1.In the context of the pandemic of the COVID-19, the national economic data is not significantly affected by it. Through data visualization and narrative analysis, it is found that when the new rate of epidemic diagnosis increases, the indicator economic data may not necessarily follow the epidemic The confirmed trend line changes.
2.The result of the hierarchical clustering method is the clustering status of the top economies derived from the world's GDP, which is based on the proportion of the country's GDP to the world's GDP.
3.The overall economy is affected by the COVID-19 epidemic to varying degrees. Taking the GDP growth rate as an example, some countries have increased from 2019 to 2020. Not only did they not have a significant impact due to the epidemic, but after comparison, they showed an upward trend in recent years.
4.In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic is spreading all over the world. What is unexpected is that the rise and fall of futures and their stability are related to the impact of the epidemic in line with other economic data.

並列關鍵字

COVID-19 ； data visualization ； data mining ； cluster analysis

參考文獻

一、中文文獻

[1]GDP統計。Stock-ai.com。2021年1月16日，取自 https://stock-ai.com/grp-Mix-wwGDP.php

[2]IMD世界競爭力(2020)。國家發展委員會。取自 https://www.ndc.gov.tw/cp.aspx?n=5DE406C89FFD8BCF&s=65A3A67E1278FD73

[3]ITREAD。(2018)。資料探勘概述。取自 https://www.itread01.com/content/1545256647.html

[4]Lora, J., David, B. & Daniele P. (2020)。新冠疫情衝擊世界經濟九張圖一目了然。取自 BBC: https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business-53249104