金融風暴前後公司治理、效率與危機預警之比較－ 台灣製造業Logistic model之實證

Corporate Governance, Efficiency and Crisis Warning System during Pre- and Post-Financial Crisis – The Empirical Study of Taiwanese Manufacturing Industries

林宏懿(Hong-yi Lin)

指導教授 ： 劉定焜

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

2007年全球金融風暴和2009年歐債危機，造成全球化股市下跌、經濟景氣低迷，導致一連串的企業及工廠倒閉與企業裁員，並造成經濟衰退、失業率升高以及通貨緊縮等現象。面對突如其來的危機，企業危機預警機制的建立，顯得格外重要與急迫。現今受到NB、智慧型手機和平板電腦等國際需求暢旺，帶動台灣製造業的出口呈現逐年增加的趨勢(經濟部工業局，2010)。本研究建構2002至2012年上市(櫃)製造業企業別(firm level)之balanced panel data。探討公司治理對製造業廠商經營績效之影響程度，過去文獻多數都以研究公司治理與營運績效間之關聯性，針對公司治理與危機預警機制和金融風暴前後影響之研究並不多見，因此選定2007年做為切割點，探討在金球金融風暴前後的公司治理與危機預警機制是否有所差異。樣本選取方面，參考過去較多文獻採用之1:1與1:2模式進行危機與正常樣本之實證配對，並考量1:3之配對比例 (Lee and Teng,2009；蔡明春等人，2009；陳雪芳等人，2010)。
首先，本文運用data envelopment analysis(DEA)估計效率值，並將效率值作為經營績效變數，探討金融風暴前後公司治理變數是否為決定經營績效的決定因素。其次，本研究進一步建構Logistic model，除納入Z-score model之財務變數外，加入過去文獻鮮少探討之風險變數，亦納入淨值與現金流量之考量。為了檢視公司治理變數是否影響危機預警之預測率，考量納入與未納入公司治理變數之實證模型。
最後，進一步運用Logistic model建構之危機警機制，藉此檢視加入公司治理變數與否對於危機預警提升之影響。期提供相關資訊予政府機關、金融機構及投資大眾決策擬定與後續研究者具價值的參考。
實證結果顯示，危機公司在金融風暴前後效率值有差異，表示危機公司在金融風暴時受到很大之影響，並難以回到金融風暴前的效率值。本研究發現納入公司治理變數後Logistic model預測準確度有微幅的提升，表示公司治理對於企業有實質的幫助。

關鍵字

危機預警 ； 公司治理 ； 金融風暴 ； Logistic model ； 效率

並列摘要

The global financial crisis in 2007 and the European debt crisis in 2009, resulting in global stock market decline, and the economic downturn. A series of enterprises and factories closed down and corporate layoff, resulting in the recession the unemployment rate increased and deflation. The face of sudden crisis, the establishment of warning mechanism, it is particularly important and urgent. It is international demand by the NB, smart phones and tablet PCs, driven by exports of the manufacturing industry in Taiwan showing a rising trend (Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2010). This study constructs the panel data of manufacturing industry companies in Taiwan from 2002 to 2012.
It explores the impact of corporate governance on the business performance of manufacturing firms, the majority study in past literature is the correlation between company governance and operating performance. The empirical studies of the impact of corporate governance and crisis early warning mechanisms and financial crisis are rarely, so the 2007 is the cutting point,and explore before and after the financial crisis whether with difference.
We follow former literatures to use 1:1 and 1:2 patterns on the financial distress and non-financial distress, and consider simultaneous pair of proportion 1:3 construction (see Lee and Teng, 2009, Tsai et al., 2009, and Chen et al., 2010).
First, we use the data envelopment analysis (DEA) estimated efficiency values and find out which is the variable of the operating performances before and after the financial crisis, explore the corporate governance variables to determine the performances of operations of the determinants. Second, this study further builds the logistic model. Besides we integrate finance of variable into the Z-core model, corporate governance, macroeconomic factors and a rare discussed risk of variable. In addition, we try to find out the corporate governance mechanism whether has the effects on forecasting, then the empirical models with and without corporate governance are taking into consideration. We hope the empirical results would provide some valuable information for government, firms, investors and further study.
The empirical results show that the crisis different efficiency values before and after the financial crisis, which means that the crisis of company in the financial crisis, it is difficult to back to pre-crisis efficiency. The study finds incorporated into the corporate governance variables of logistic model with the slightly improved precision rate, which means that corporate governance for the enterprise to have substance.

並列關鍵字

Financial crisis ； Corporate Governance ； Crisis early warning ； Logistic model ； Efficiency

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