「失去機會」？美國學者對1940年代末美國和中共未建交之論點的探討

"The Lost Chance"? A Discussion of American Historians' Arguments about why United States did not Establish Diplomatic Relationship with Chinese Communist Regime in late 1940's

莊榮輝(Jung-Huei Chuang)

《花蓮師院學報》 15期 (2002/12) Pp. 111-144

摘要

1949年國共內戰逆轉，中國大陸風雲變色，中共政權正式成立，國府則退居台灣。這一結果，嚴重的影響了中美關係的發展。面對這一個巨大的變化，對美國杜魯門政府來說，面臨兩難的困境，那就是：是否放棄國府轉而承認中共，在一連串的考量之後，美國決策者並沒有採取承認中共的政策。對於這樣的結果，1970年代以後的美國學者，因為國際政治環境的改變以及新資料的展現，提出了「失去機會」的理論來加以詮釋。就其發展而言，「失去機會」的理論可成兩個階段。第一個階段學者強調美國的敵視與短視的政策，拒絕了中共真心要美國承認的提議，迫使中共倒向蘇聯的懷抱，自此導致一連串包括韓戰與越戰在內的災難事件發生。到了第二個階段出現所謂的「孔唐理論」，他們不再認為美國敵視中共，而強調杜魯門政府一直朝承認中共的方向前進，但是因為美國國內政治的牽制，延緩了承認政策的推動，到最後韓戰的爆發，才讓雙方和解的機會消失。不過，到了1980年代末，因為上述相同的因素，有一些學者轉而質疑甚至要推翻「失去機會」的理論。本文即旨在探討學者對此一理論的提出與批評。

關鍵字

美國史學史 ； 中美關係 ； 失去機會

並列摘要

The reins of China changed to the communists’ hand and Chinese Communist regime was established in 1949after the Chinese civil war suspended the same year. The KMT government retreated to Taiwan. The consequence seriously affected the development of Sino-American relationship. This dramatic change forced the Truman government into a dilemma, which is if he should abandon KMT and give the Communist the diplomatic recognition. After long consideration, American policy makers did not choose the recognition of Communist regime. Based on the changes in the international political environment and the publicity of new Archival sources, American scholars proposed “The lost chance” theory to interpret this consequence. According to its development, “the lost chance” theory could be divided into two phases. The scholars in the first phase emphasized on the hostile and nearsighted policy of American government, which refused the Chinese Communists’ proposal of their sincereness to invite American recognition. Thus, forced Chinese Communists to turn to the Soviet side. This led to the series disasters including Korean War and Vietnam War. The “Cohen-Tucker Theory” was developed in the second phase.
They did not consider America was hostile toward Chinese Communist, and emphasized that Truman govermment was pushing toward recognizing Chinese Communist regime. But, because of the impeding of civil political situation in the United States, the recognition policy was postponed. At the end the burst out of the Korean War destroyed the opportunity of reconciliation between the two sides. At the end of 1980s, some scholars became to query or even try to over turn “The lost chance” theory because of the same reasons. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the development and criticism of this theory from the historians’ viewpoints.

並列關鍵字

American historians' views ； Sino-American relationship ； The Lost Chance.