以地文內在因子及水文外在因子建構國有林地崩塌潛勢警戒模式

Establishment of Landslide Susceptibility Early Warning Model in National Forest Areas Based on Geo-intrinsic and Hydro-extrinsic Factors

陳樹群(Su-Chin Chen) ； 吳俊毅(Chun-Yi Wu)

《中華水土保持學報》 49卷2期 (2018/06) Pp. 89-97

https://doi.org/10.29417/JCSWC.201806_49(2).0003

摘要

本研究先針對全台國有林地建立崩塌潛勢模式，再設定崩壞個數比超過5%時之相應潛勢值為潛勢門檻值，最後利用各網格內在潛勢值與門檻值之差值，即可推估各網格之崩塌雨量警戒基準值。分析結果顯示崩塌雨量警戒基準值多略大於國家災害防救科技中心坡地災害警戒值，且多小於水土保持局土石流警戒基準值，推估結果尚屬合理。本模式所得之的坡面網格警戒基準值，具有更佳的空間解析度，可做為更精細的坡面尺度警戒機制之發展基礎。

關鍵字

淺層崩塌 ； 崩塌潛勢 ； 警戒模式 ； 國有林地

並列摘要

Landslide susceptibility models of National Forest Areas in Taiwan were established in this study. A landslide susceptibility index corresponding to a landslide ratio larger than 5% was selected as a threshold value. The difference between the intrinsic landslide susceptibility index and the threshold value in each grid was used to estimate rainfall threshold values for shallow landslide warnings. The rainfall threshold values for shallow landslide warnings in most grids were slightly larger than those for slopeland disaster warnings and smaller than those for debris flow warnings. These results were rational. The rainfall threshold map estimated using this model exhibited a desirable spatial resolution and could be a basis for a more precise slopeland early warning system.

並列關鍵字

Shallow landslide ； landslide susceptibility ； early warning model ； National Forest Area