氣候變遷對台北地下水補注之衝擊

Climate Change Lmpacts on Taipei Groundwater Recharge

譚仲哲(Chung-Che Tan) ； 童慶斌(Ching-Pin Tung)

《農業工程學報》 54卷1期 (2008/03) Pp. 1-15

https://doi.org/10.29974/JTAE.200803.0001

摘要

氣候變遷是指長期的氣候特性改變，並可能導致短期氣候變異極端氣候頻率增加，造成降雨與氣溫生發變化進而影響河川流量以及地下水補注量。台北盆地景美含水層受大漢溪與新店溪支流量補注，本研究目的在探討氣候變遷對台北盆地景美含水層補注量之影響。本研究利用地下水模式Processing MODFLOW (PMWIN)建立地下水數值模型，搜集前人研究水文地質參數資料、地下水觀測水頭以及地面河川流量、與斷面資料，利用HEC-RAS模式模擬河川水位，並參考文獻以確立其可能之地下水補注區，應用PMWIN中的RIVER PACKAGE進行地下水補注區這建置：另外參考文獻中評估未來短期氣候遷情境HADCM3-A2與GCGM2-A2之下模擬未來流量之變異，並以此變異修正歷史流量序列進而輸入台北盆地主要含水層地下水數值模型，評估氣候變遷對地下水補注量之衝擊。結果顯示不論是HADCM3-A2或是GCGM2-A2短期（西元2012~2039年）氣候變遷情境，對地下水補注全期總量的影響皆不顯著，不過針對不同季節則會産生增加或減少等不同的衝擊，且呈豐水季補注量增加，枯水季補注量減少的現象，整體而言，HADCM3-A2情境産生之衝擊較GCGM2-A2情境劇烈且顯著，然而後續研究宜納入列多未來氣候情境分析，以獲得較廣泛之資訊。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 全球暖化 ； PMWIN ； 地下水補注量 ； 模擬

並列摘要

Climate change which indicates the variale of long-term climate characteristics may result in enormous effects of short-term climate trends and raising frequency of extreme climate. The precipitation and the temperature are likely effected by climate change and further induce influences of streamflow and groundwater recharge. However, the groundwater recharge of Taipei basin is mainly from DaHan and SinDian river. The climate change impact on Taipei groundwater recharge is evaluated in this study. Processing MODFLOW is used in this study to construct a groundwater numerical model of Taipei basin with all kinds of historical data. Such as the simulated river elevation derived from the HEC-RAS model with streamflow data and using the river package to simulate the groundwater recharge based on the references. The referred variate of streamflow with the climate change, HADCM3-A2 and GCGM2-A2 scenarios, are applied to evaluate the average affected groundwater recharge from 2010~2039. The results show the increasing recharge in wet seasons and the decreasing recharge in dry seasons. However, the HADCM3-A2 scenario has more apparent variation than GCGM2-A2 scenario in groundwater recharge within a year even both scenarios exhibit the unobvious changes of the yearly total recharge.

並列關鍵字

Climate Change ； Global Warming ； PMWIN ； Groundwater Recharge ； Simulation