極端颱風事件流量模擬之災害衝擊風險分析

極端颱風降雨事件常導致人命的損失與社會經濟的衝擊，因此若能事先對極端颱風降雨事件所帶來的災害程度進行詳細評估，將有助於國內防減災之工作。本研究以曾文溪流域為示範區域，使用國內首見之動力降尺度資料，挑選未來（2075至2099年間）前10大極端颱風降雨事件，結合SOBEK淹水模式之模擬且以國家災害防救科技中心（NCDR）已建置之臺灣颱洪災損評估系統（TLAS）評估損失規模。由研究成果可得知，十場事件總損失的平均金額為136億，再進一步針對不同土地利用進行損失分析，其中又以工業、住宅及農業為主要的損失類別。統計十場事件之工業總損失平均約為52億、其次是住宅總損失平均22億、農業總損失為21億，三者佔總平均損失之70%。因此若能有效減輕上述三類土地利用衝擊，將可大幅降低此流域面對極端淹水事所造成的損失。

關鍵字

極端颱風事件；災害衝擊；風險分析

並列摘要

Extreme typhoon rainfall events can easily cause casualties and socio-economic impacts, thus thorough assessment of the potential losses beforehand will greatly enhance the disaster management conducted in Taiwan. This paper draws on the basin of Tsengwen Creek as an example and applies the unparalleled dynamical downscaling data as well as SOBEK inundation model along with Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS, by NCDR) to demonstrate the assessment system over the top ten occurrences in furfure 25 years (2075-2099). The results suggest an average loss of 13.6 billion dollars. And a further analysis aims at damage caused on lands of different-industrial, residential, and agricultural. The analysis shows an average loss of 52 billion on industrial lands, 22 billion on residential lands, and 21 billion on agricultural lands, which altogether, takes up 70% of all losses. A bating impacts resulted from the aforementioned land-use may decrease possible losses that the basin could undergo when are face with extreme inundation in future.

並列關鍵字

Extreme typhoon rainfall event ； Disaster impact ； Risk analysis ； SOBEK ； TLAS

國際替代計量

極端颱風事件流量模擬之災害衝擊風險分析

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