樣本偏誤對財務危機預警模型影響之研究

Impact of Choice-Based Sample Bias on Predicting Corporate Financial Distress

陳建宏(Chien-Hung Chen) ； 陳麗芬(Li-Fen Chen) ； 戴錦周(Jin-Jou Dai)

《東吳經濟商學學報》 57期 (2007/06) Pp. 29-47

https://doi.org/10.29735/SJEB.200706.0002

摘要

本研究利用財務報表資訊，建構台灣紡織業及營建業上市公司之財務預警模式，並檢定樣本偏誤對模型的影響。實證結果顯示：速動比率、負債比率、營運資金比率、和營業利益率，是影響紡織業財務危機的重要變數；而流動比率、負債比率、總資產週轉率、和每股盈餘則是營建業的重要變數。在選擇性樣本偏誤之檢定方面，當財務危機公司與健全公司的配對樣本比例下降時，雖然財務危機公司的正確分類率提高，但估計係數偏離母體的問題會越為嚴重。

關鍵字

Logit模型 ； 財務危機 ； 選擇性樣本偏誤 ； 紡織業 ； 營建業

並列摘要

Financial ratios were used to build models of predicting corporate financial distress in the Taiwanese textile and construction industries. Further, in order to study the impact of sampling on the empirical results, the choice-based sample bias of the models were tested. The empirical results show that the quick ratio, debt ratio, working capital ratio, and ratio of operating profits were important variables influencing the financial distress of the textile industry, while the current ratio, debt ratio, asset turnover ratio, and earnings per share were important for the construction industry. Moreover, the test of choice-based sample bias shows that a sample with a lower proportion of financially distressed firms would result in a larger bias even if the percentage of correct classification would be increased.

並列關鍵字

Logit Model ； Financial Distress ； Choice-based Sample Bias ； Textile Industry ； Construction Industry

參考文獻

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