當前美國與拉美激進左派國家關係與前景：2008年美、玻、委外交衝突事件個案研究

2008年9月，美國、玻利維亞及委內瑞拉三國爆發令周邊國家擔憂的嚴重外交衝突事件。這個緊張情勢雖然在三方決定自我克制的情況下，除了相互驅逐大使，情勢並未惡化，但三方何以採取如此克制的作為，是筆者欲在本文探討的議題。本文利用傑維斯(Robert Jervis)1976年書中所提出決策者的認知、對他國意向的解讀、敵意的高低等認知心理途徑的核心概念，檢視2008年美、玻、委三國外交衝突事件中，三方究竟本於何種的利益考量或計算，才做出相互克制以緩解衝突的決定。本文發現促成美、玻、委三方在2008年採取克制態度處理衝突事件的主要因素是，衝突事件當時的不一致訊息及複雜的情勢所致，因為在無法判定風險與代價高低時，決策者通常避免過早做出決定以減少錯誤，因而延後對外使用武力及衝突爆發的時間。

關鍵字

美國；玻利維亞；委內瑞拉；拉美激進左派國家；認知心理學

並列摘要

In September 2008, there was a serious diplomatic confrontation involving the United States, Bolivia, and Venezuela that alarmed other countries in the Western Hemisphere. The decision to exercise self-restraint on all sides meant that action was limited to the mutual expulsion of ambassadors and the crisis did not escalate. In this paper, the author studies why the three countries exercised such self-restraint. Robert Jervis' core concepts of policymakers' perceptions, the understanding of other countries' intentions, and image of hostility are employed in examining why the three countries involved decided to back down from the confrontation. The author finds that the main reasons for this were inconsistent information and the complexity of the situation. In a situation in which it is impossible to calculate risks and costs, policymakers often postpone making decisions in order to minimize mistakes, thus deferring the use of military force and the outbreak of conflicts.