Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin


Fei Yuan;Zheng-Hui Xie;Qian Liu;Jun Xia

Key Words

climate change ; regional climate modeling system ; runoff ; VIC-3L model



Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

15卷5期(2005 / 10 / 01)

Page #

595 - 600

Content Language


English Abstract

Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°×0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-4990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition, under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

Topic Category 生物農學 > 農業
生物農學 > 森林
生物農學 > 畜牧
生物農學 > 漁業
生物農學 > 生物環境與多樣性