Title

Spatial Variation of the DPP's Expansion between Taiwan's Presidential Elections

DOI

10.7033/ISE.200612_42(4).0001

Authors

Jinn-Guey Lay;Yu-Wen Chen;Ko-Hua Yap

Key Words

Taiwan ; Democratic Progressive Party DPP ; exploratory spatial data analysis ESDA ; spatial lag regression ; political geography

PublicationName

Issues & Studies

Volume or Term/Year and Month of Publication

42卷4期(2006 / 12 / 01)

Page #

1 - 22

Content Language

英文

English Abstract

This study examines the aggregate change of the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) expansion between Taiwan's presidential elections from a spatial perspective. We find that the expansion of the DPP exhibited spatial clustering from 1996 to 2000. Its growth was clustered in southern Taiwan in this period, creating a considerable stronghold in the 2000 presidential election. From 2000 to 2004, however, the hot spots of DPP expansion shifted to central Taiwan and exhibited relatively dispersed patterns. To explain the spatial variation of the DPP's expansion, we incorporate independent variables of income, education, and ethnicity into regression models. The result of non-spatial regression analyses reveals that demographic characteristics played a role in the DPP's expansion. After inserting a spatial lag term into spatial regression models, however, we find that the impacts of some demographic variables have been overridden by the neighborhood effect. This implies that in addition to social cleavages, some campaign mobilization efforts or the socialization of one's network in the context of a broadly defined neighborhood could also have prompted the regional variation of the DPP's expansion. Further research is required to specify the mechanisms that formed the neighborhood effect.

Topic Category 社會科學 > 政治學
Reference
  1. Chen, Yi-yan、Sheng Shing-yuan(2003)。政治分歧與政黨競爭:2001年立法委員選舉的分析。Xuanju yanjiu,10(1),7-40。
    連結:
  2. Lee、 Pei-shan,Hsu Yung-ming(2002).Southern Politics? Regional Trajectories of Party Development.Issues & Studies,38(2),61-84.
    連結:
  3. Wang, Fu-chang(2002)。族群接觸機會還是族群競爭?本省閩南人族群意識內涵與地區差異模式之解釋。台灣社會學,4,11-74。
    連結:
  4. Wu、 Nai-teh(2002).認同衝突和政治信任:現階段台灣族群政治的核心難題.Taiwan shehuixue,4,75-118.
    連結:
  5. Anselin, Luc(1988).Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models.Boston:Kluwer Academic.
  6. Anselin, Luc(1995).Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA).Geographical Analysis,27,91-115.
  7. Anselin, Luc,Manfred M. Fischer,Hank J. Scholtern,David Unwin(ed.)(1996).Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS.London:Taylor & Francis.
  8. Chen, Yi-yan(2003)。台灣選舉行為調查的回顧與展望。選舉研究,10(1),1-6。
  9. Cho, Wendy K. Tam(2003).Contagion Effects and Ethnic Contribution Networks.American Journal of Political Science,47(2),368-387.
  10. Cliff , Andrew D.,J. Keith Ord(1973).Spatial Autocorrelation.London:Pion.
  11. Cox, K. R.,Christopher Board,Peter Haggett,Richard J. Chorley,David R. Stoddart(ed.)(1969).Progress in Geography: International Reviews of Current Research.London:Edward Arnold.
  12. Foladare, Irving S.(1968).The Effect of Neighborhood on Voting Behavior.Political Science Quarterly,83(4),516-529.
  13. Gimpel, James G.,Irwin L. Morris,David R. Armstrong(2004).Turnout and the Local Age Distribution: Examining Political Participation across Space and Time.Political Geography,23,71-95.
  14. Gimpel, James G.,Wendy K. Tam Cho(2004).The Persistence of White Ethnicity in New England Politics.Political Geography,23,987-1008.
  15. Haggett, Peter,Andrew D. Cliff,Allan E. Frey(1977).Locational Methods.New York:John Wiley & Son.
  16. Hsieh、 John Fuh-sheng,Emerson M.S. Niou(1996).Salient Issues in Taiwan`s Electoral Politics.Electoral Studies,15(2),219-235.
  17. Inglehart, Ronald(1990).Cultural Shift in Advanced Industrial Society.Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press.
  18. Kim、 Jeongdai,Euell Elliott,Ding-ming Wang(2003).A Spatial Analysis of County-Level Outcomes in U.S. Presidential Elections: 1988-2000.Electoral Studies,22(4),741-761.
  19. Kohfeld, Carol W.,John Sprague(2002).Race, Space and Turnout.Political Geography,21,175-193.
  20. Lee, Jay,David W. S. Wong(2001).Statistical Analysis with ArcView GIS.New York:John Wiley & Sons.
  21. Lin、 Tse-min,Wu Chin-en,Lee Feng-yu(2006).Neighborhood Influence on the Formation of National Identity in Taiwan: Spatial Regression with Disjoint Neighborhoods.Political Research Quarterly,59(1),35-46.
  22. Lipset, Seymour M.,Stein Rokkan(1967).Party Systems and Voter Alignment.New York:Free Press.
  23. McAllister, Iain(1987).Social Context, Turnout, and the Vote: Australian and British Comparisons.Political Geography Quarterly,6,17-30.
  24. McAllister, Iain,Donley T. Studlar(1992).Region and Voting in Britain, 1979-87: Territorial Polarization or Artifact.American Journal of Political Science,36(1),168-199.
  25. McAllister, Iain,Edward Fieldhouse,Andrew Russell(2002).Yellow Fever? The Political Geography of Liberal Voting in Great Britain.Political Geography,21,421-447.
  26. Openshaw, Stan(1983).The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (Concepts and Techniques in Modern Geography).Norwish:Geo Books.
  27. Robinson, W. S.(1950).Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals.American Sociological Review,15(3),351-357.
  28. Shin, Michael E.,John Agnew(2002).The Geography of Party Replacement in Italy, 1987-1996.Political Geography,21,221-242.
  29. Tingsten, Herbert(1937).Political Behavior: Studies in Election Statistics.London:P. S. King and Son.
  30. Valen, Henry,Daniel Katz(1964).Political Parties in Norway: A Community Study.Oslo:Universitetsforlaget.
  31. Vilalta y Perdomo, C.J.(2004).The Local Context and the Spatial Diffusion of Multiparty Competition in Urban Mexico, 1994-2000.Political Geography,23,403-4232.
  32. Wang, Fu-chang(1994)。族群同化與動員:台灣民眾政黨支持之分析。中研院民族學研究所集刊,77,1-34。
  33. Wu, Nai-teh(1993)。國家認同與政黨支持。Zhongyang yanjiuyuan minzuxue yanjiusuo jikan,74,33-61。
  34. Yu、 Ching-hsin(2005).The Evolving Party System in Taiwan, 1995-2004.Journal of Asian and African Studies,40(1-2),105-123.
Times Cited
  1. 李晏甄(2010)。台灣南北對立想像的興起。政治大學社會學研究所學位論文。2010。1-199。
  2. 顏詩耕(2011)。綠營傳統票倉?臺灣南部選舉政治分析。臺北大學社會學系學位論文。2011。1-179。