自組性演算法結合距離－水位模式應用於暴雨時期未設站河段即時水位之預測

Stream Level Forecasting in Storm Period by Using Self-Organization Algorithm Coupled with Distance ~ Level Relation Model

蔡宗旻(Tsung-Min Tsai) ； 顏沛華(Pei-Hwa Yen) ； 江孟樵(Meng-Qiao Jiang) ； 謝易霖(Yi-Lin Shieh)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 22卷4期 (2010/12) Pp. 363-374

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.201012_22(4).0002

摘要

本文以GMDH（Group Method of Data Handling）理論特有之自組多層演算法，建立單純的水位輸入－輸出模式，替代傳統複雜之水文式演算，化繁為簡藉以預測河川水位。再加上GMDH演算法之遞迴結構功能，可修正系統時變性影響，使本模式在複雜的自然因素中更具適用性。本文又以馬斯金更公式為基礎，搭配於地圖上最容易量測之「距離」數據，發展水位－距離模式，可避開必須現場作業，量測水文數據之不便（足）。故本文所發展之「GMDH水位預測模式」結合「水位~距離模式」可應用於河道任意斷面及未設站河段從事1~ 6小時後之洪水預報作業。

關鍵字

GMDH ； 暴雨 ； 水位預測

並列摘要

A framework based on GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) is proposed in this paper to establish the I/O model as the alternative by using the relatively simple field measuring water/tidal level and rainfall data as the model input to predict 1 to 6 hour-lead water level of specific river during a storm period. The update stream level and rainfall data were collected to organize the Sequential GMDH modified model to match the time variant properties in stream level forecasting steps. The distance ~ level relation model based on the Muskingum formula and range data which were simply measured from a map were established in this paper also. The GMDH stream level forecasting model cooperated with the distance ~ level relation model could be used as the coupled model for 1 to 6 hour-lead water level forecasting at any specific stream sections.

並列關鍵字

group method of data handling ； storm ； water level forecasting