不同景氣狀態下的台灣貨幣政策效果

THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY OVER BUSINESS CYCLES IN TAIWAN

蕭宇翔(Yu-Hsiang Hsiao)

《經濟論文》 49卷4期 (2021/12) Pp. 527-568

摘要

本文檢視在景氣循環的不同時點，貨幣政策對實體經濟的影響效果是否不同。考量貨幣政策決策多具前瞻性與反循環的特質，本文控制央行決策當下所掌握的經濟成長率與通膨率預測數，排除政策利率因應未來經濟情勢調整的部分，據以認定貨幣政策衝擊。估計結果顯示，據此方法認定之貨幣政策衝擊對實質產出、失業率、實質銀行放款的影響效果，大於傳統採短期限制條件所認定的政策衝擊。短期限制條件僅控制當期與過去總體變數的變化，忽略央行貨幣決策的前瞻性，可能低估貨幣政策刺激經濟的效果。進而，在景氣熱絡時期，貨幣政策對實質產出、失業率、實質銀行放款的影響較景氣低迷時大，對消費者物價指數較無明確的不對稱效果。

關鍵字

貨幣政策 ； 景氣狀態 ； 衝擊反應

並列摘要

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of monetary policy over business cycles in Taiwan. Employing Romer and Romer's (2004) identification approach, we construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks for Taiwan's economy. Estimated by the new measure, the finding suggests that the impact of monetary policy is larger and the transmission speed is faster than with a short-term restriction approach. Moreover, the impact of monetary policy on output, employment, and real bank loans are less effective in recessions than in expansions. Furthermore, private consumption and investment are less responsive to monetary policy in recessions than in expansions, and government consumption has no significant response in either state. The paper, however, finds no asymmetric impact on the consumer price index over business cycles.

並列關鍵字

Monetary policy ； Business cycle ； Impulse response

參考文獻

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