名目所得目標區下的蜜月效果直覺圖形分析－產出與股價雙預期的考量

Graphical Analysis of the Honeymoon Effect of Nominal Income Target Zones-The Dual Expectations Consideration of Output and the Stock Price

廖培賢(Peir-Shyan Liaw)

《經濟論文叢刊》 38卷1期 (2010/03) Pp. 99-146

https://doi.org/10.6277/ter.2010.381.3

摘要

本文我們以Blanchard(1981)與Lai et al.(2003)的模型爲基礎，進而建構一個封閉總體經濟架構。在民眾對產出與股價的未來變動同時存在預期之前提下，以Lai et al.(2003)具經濟直覺的雙預期變數圖形解析法，來進行一旦貨幣當局宣佈實施「名目所得目標區」政策對相關的總體經濟變數是否具有蜜月效果的分析。我們的結論顯示：不管外生隨機干擾來源到底係來自貨幣、商品抑或股票市場的需求面，貨幣當局若想企圖穩定名目（實質）所得水準，則「名目所得目標區」政策的實施未必優於「釘住貨幣供給」政策；換句話說，貨幣當局宣佈實施「名目所得目標區」政策對名目（實質）所得未必具有蜜月效果。

關鍵字

名目所得目標區 ； 蜜月效果 ； 布朗運動

並列摘要

This paper presents a macroeconomic model in a closed economy based on the framework developed by Blanchard (1981) and Lai et al. (2003). In view of the changes in people's dual expectations regarding output and stock prices, the model uses an economically-intuitive dual expectations graphical approach to examine the existence of a honeymoon effect for related macroeconomic variables when the monetary authority implements a nominal income target zone policy. This paper concludes that if the goal of the monetary authority is to stabilize the nominal income level, a nominal income target zone policy may not be any more effective than a pegged money supply policy, regardless of the sources of the stochastic shocks. In other words, there may not be a nominal income honeymoon effect if the monetary authority implements a nominal income target zone policy.

並列關鍵字

nominal income target zone ； honeymoon effect ； Brownian motion

參考文獻

黃秋瓊、胡士文(2008)。匯率目標區和股價之穩定。交大管理學報。28(1)，169-203。

Abel, A. B.,Bernake, B. S.(2001).Macroeconomics.New York:Addison Wesley.

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Blancliard, O. J.(1981).Output, the stock market, and interest rates.American Economic Review.71,132-143.

Bradley, M. D.,Jansen, D. W.(1989).The optimality of nominal in come targeting when wages are indexde to price.Southern Economic Journal.56,13-23.