臺灣中高齡人口與子女同住的年齡、時期、世代變化

An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Intergenerational Coresidence With Children Among the Middle-Aged and Elderly Population in Taiwan

張詠菡(Yung-Han Chang)

《人口學刊》 64期 (2022/06) Pp. 101-155

https://doi.org/10.6191/JPS.202206_(64).0003

摘要

人口與家庭結構變化下，高齡者的照顧與居住為多國面臨的挑戰。相較西方，在以孝道為核心之社會規範下，臺灣父母與子女同住的比例長久偏高，但隨著傳統規範影響衰退，代間同住模式如何隨時間變化成為愈趨重要的問題。囿於年齡、時期、世代三個時間效應的甄別問題，過去研究較缺乏對代間同住歷時變化之清晰結論。為補足上述缺口，本研究採用家庭動態調查2000、2002、2004、2006、2008、2010、2012、2014、2016年的追蹤資料，以成長曲線模型分析1935-1963年出生之樣本與子女同住的歷時變化。研究發現，在控制時期與世代效應以及其他自變項後，年齡與代間同住可能性之間呈曲線關係，且此關係有明顯的性別差異。男性隨著年齡增長，與子女同住的可能性大致呈下降曲線；女性隨著年齡增長，與子女同住的可能性則呈先略下降再上升，後又再微降的雙U型曲線。研究也發現當控制其他變項後，出生年愈晚的樣本與子女同住的可能性愈低，而此效果在控制長子女出生年後尤其顯著，顯示親代價值觀轉變對代間同住的影響隨世代更迭漸趨明顯。根據研究結果，本研究建議，政府應思索調整家庭化的照顧政策思維，從高齡者得以居住自主的角度出發，建構未來超高齡社會的社政框架。

關鍵字

代間關係 ； 代間同住 ； 年齡時期世代效應 ； 成長曲線模型

並列摘要

In the context of family structure and demographic changes, elderly care and living arrangements have become challenging in many countries. In contrast to the West, a high level of coresidence between parents and adult children has long been sustained by the social norms underpinned by filial piety in Taiwan. However, the declining influence of traditional values gives rise to a need to address the changes in intergenerational coresidence over time. Given the age-period-cohort identification conundrum, there has been a lack of congruent and consistent results from previous research on intergenerational coresidence. To fill the gap, drawing on the longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics survey collected in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016, this study adopted the growth curve modeling approach to analyze the dynamics of intergenerational coresidence of respondents born between 1935 and 1963. The analysis result showed that, after controlling for the effects of the period, cohort, and other independent variables, there is a polynomial relationship between age effects and respondents' probabilities of co-residing with children. Moreover, the result revealed evident gender differences in age effects. While men's probability of co-residing with children declined as they aged, their female counterparts' coresidence probability exhibited a double U-shaped projection as it fell, rose, then fell again. The analysis also found that, after controlling for other variables, respondents of younger cohorts were less likely to co-reside with children, which became even more statistically significant after holding the birth year of the eldest child constant. This finding underscores the increasing significance of changes in values and attitudes as younger cohorts come onto the scene. Based on the research findings, this study suggests that the government should revise the familisation-based care policy and design a policy framework that renders the future super-aged society compatible with independent and autonomous living among the elderly.

並列關鍵字

intergenerational relationship ； intergenerational coresidence ； age-period-cohort effect ； growth curve model

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