台灣放射線診斷專科醫師於未來十年人力供給與需求之評估

Supply and Demand in Relation to Diagnostic Radiologists in Taiwan over the Next 10 Years

陳榮邦(Wing P. Chan) ； 洪聖慈(Sheng-Tzu Hung) ； 張政彥(Cheng-Yen Chang) ； 廖漢文(Hon-Man Liu) ； 萬永亮(Yung-Liang Wan) ； 陳良光(Liang-Kuang Chen) ； 于俊(Chun Yu)

《中華放射線醫學雜誌》 32卷2期 (2007/06) Pp. 71-80

摘要

本研究之目的在評估台灣未來十年放射線診斷專科醫師（放診醫師）的人力供給與需求情形。
本研究人力需求是利用2004年的民眾醫療使用及人口組成來計算放射線科醫療需求，進而推估2015年需要多少放診醫師，人力供給的部分則利用假設每年增加的放診醫師數計算。資料來源係利用衛生署、國家衛生研究院、經建會、內政部的統計數據。
以目前醫師年工作量和民眾醫療需求推估，在2015年的人口數目及老化程度下，若維持相同的工作負荷，可推估出需要630-655位放診醫師，但每十萬人口仍僅有2.7-2.8位放診醫師。以供給面來看，若每年增加30-50位放診醫師，2015年應有805-973位放診醫師，每十萬人口有3.4-4.1位，屆時平均每位放診醫師工作量與現今相比可減少18-32%。
台灣若欲達到國外先進國家放診醫師人口比的水準，每年至少需要增加50位醫師以上，但考量其他專科醫師人數成長及台灣的醫療政策，建議每年固定增加至少40名，使每十萬人口達到有3.8位放診醫師，以因應人口老化成長及高貴儀器使用量增加所帶來的醫療負荷量。

並列摘要

The aim of this study was to assess supply of and demand for diagnostic radiologists in Taiwan over the next 10 years.
The number of radiologists needed in 2015 was assessed on the basis of the utility of medical resources and the composition of the population in Taiwan in 2004. To predict the manpower supply, we hypothesized how many new radiologists will be enrolled over the next 10 years. The database was obtained from three areas: National Health Insurance, Council for Economic Planning and Development, and Ministry of the Interior, Executive Yuan, in Taiwan.
To maintain the current annual workload, 630-655 radiologists will be needed in 2015. This estimation was normalized to the growth and ageing of the population at that time. This is equivalent to 2.7-2.8 radiologists per 100,000 people. If 30-50 new radiologists are supplied annually, a total of 766-926 radiologists will be enrolled for service in 2015, and the workload for each radiologist will be less than the current workload by 18-32%.
Results from our data indicate that an annual growth of 50 new radiologists will be needed in order to reach the radiologist-to-population ratio of other developed countries. However, considering the growth of other specialties and the medical policy in Taiwan, we suggest an annual growth of 40 new radiologists, so that a standard of 3.6 radiologists per 100,000 people can be reached, with adjustment for the ageing population and the growth of the workload from advanced technology.