選舉事件與選民的投票抉擇：以台灣2004年總統選舉為分析對象

The Effect of Campaigning Events on Vote Choice: A Study of the 2004 Presidential Election in Taiwan

張佑宗(Yu-Tzung Chang)

《東吳政治學報》 22期 (2006/03) Pp. 121-160

https://doi.org/10.6418/SJPS.200603.0121

摘要

本文主要分析台灣2004年總統選舉的過程中，先後出現四大負面競選事件與「319槍擊案」，這五大選舉事件對台灣總統選民投票抉擇影響的程度。在未控制其它因素的條件下，四大負面競選事件與「319槍擊案」，的確與選民投票的抉擇之間有顯著的關連。其中「吳淑珍買賣股票」事件，以及「陳由豪政治獻金」事件，都明顯與是否支持陳水扁有關。至於「連戰家產」來源，以及「國民黨黨產」問題，的確也與是否支持連戰有關。比較有趣的發現是，過去在輿論上認為「319槍擊案」對陳水扁選情比較有利的看法，並沒有在此次的調查資料中獲得支持。認為槍擊案對其投票抉擇有影響的選民，傾向投給「連宋配」，而認為槍擊案對其投票抉擇沒有影響的選民，傾向投給「陳呂配」。當然，由於調查程序是在總統選後二個月才正式展開，有可能因選民回憶的不正確性，或不願據實回答，甚至因受到對選舉結果而引發社會衝突事件的衝擊，受訪者已經改變原先對槍擊案的立場，最後影響到資料的正確性。 其次，本文進一步透過選樣偏誤模型的分析，發現五大選舉事件與選民的投票抉擇之間，在加入其它因素後，它們之間並沒有顯著的因果關係。選民對競選件的認知與評價，其實受到許多中介因素的干擾，也就是受到選民的政黨認同、族群認同與國家認同所影響。比較認同「泛藍」陣營、中國人與主張統一的選民，越覺得有關陳水扁負面的選舉事件，對其投票抉擇有影響；認同「泛綠」陣營、台灣人與主張獨立的選民，越覺得有關連戰負面的選舉事件，對其投票抉擇有影響。這項發現，印證了多數美國總統選舉研究的發現，因為候選人在媒體使用的機會相等，幾乎很少發生不同政治立場的人，會被競選事件的引導而轉投到另外一個候選人。總統選舉的競選過程，只是強化他們原本的支持立場而已。

關鍵字

負面競選 ； 319槍擊案 ； 投票抉擇 ； 2004年總統大選

並列摘要

This article analyzes how the incidents surrounding the 2004 Taiwanese presidential campaign affected the choices of voters. Not controlling for other factors, campaign incidents have a significant relationship with voter choices. Among these incidents, those involving First Lady Wu Shu-jen allegedly buying and selling votes and Chen Yu-hao's political donations both had a marked influence on President Chen's base of support. In addition, the issues of Lian Chan's family wealth and the KMT's financial and real estate assets both influenced the level of support for Lian Chan. One interesting finding was that although the public has seen the March 19(superscript th), 2004 assassination attempt on President Chen as beneficial to his electoral chances, the results of this survey do not support this view. Our data shows that those influenced by the assassination attempt were mostly supporters of the Lian-Soong ticket, while those not influenced were mostly supporters of the Chen-Lu ticket. Of course, it is possible that since the survey was initiated two months after the election there were voter-memory problems, and the survey could also have been affected by voters' reluctance to provide accurate answers, or their having already changed their views of the election since its conclusion.
Basing analysis on the selection bias model, this article finds that negative campaign incidents did not actually have a significant relationship with voter choices when controlling for other factors. In fact, voters' understanding and evaluation of negative campaign incidents were influenced by many other intervening factors, especially party-identification, ethnic-identification, and national-identification. Those who identify themselves as Pan-Blues, Chinese, and supporters of unification saw themselves as influenced by negative incidents involving President Chen. At the same time, those who identify themselves as Pan-Greens, Taiwanese, and supporters of Taiwan independence saw themselves as influenced by negative incidents involving Lian Chan. This study confirms the traditional view in election studies that when candidates have equal access to the media, the original positions of opposite sides of the electorate are strengthened by the campaign process, rather than being influenced in such a way that they switch to the other side.

並列關鍵字

negative campaigning ； shocking event ； voter choice ； the 2004 presidential election in Taiwan

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