Investment of Foreign Financial Institutions in China Banking Sector: A Survival Model Analysis

外資金融機構角色及其參股中國大陸銀行決策研究

張惠龍(Hui-Lung Chang) ； 吳壽山(Sou-Shan Wu) ； 廖四郎(Szu-Lang Liao)

《財務金融學刊》 22卷3期 (2014/09) Pp. 1-25

https://doi.org/10.6545/JFS.2014.22(3).1

摘要

本文分析外資金融機構在中國大陸金融市場採行參股策略之動機與目標，並求得最適參股機率強度門檻。實證研究顯示外資金融機構採行參股策略目的主要在於創造被參股對象市場價值，及增加參股投資報酬。對於獲利能力及資產品質較佳之外資金融機構，以及資產品質較佳之中國大陸銀行，則具有較高之參股與被參股潛在動機。

關鍵字

參股 ； 危險函數 ； 最大概似估計值 ； 截斷資料 ； 最適機率強度門檻

並列摘要

This article applies Cox's proportional-hazard survival model to analyze foreign financial institutions' strategic equity investment decision in Chinese banks and obtain the optimal probability hazard threshold as a criterion. The results confirm that the objectives of foreign strategic investments are to increase the profitability and market values of the target Chinese banks. In general, high earning and asset quality foreign financial institutions and high asset quality Chinese banks are both highly motivated to engage in strategic investment transaction.

並列關鍵字

Acquisition of equity stakes ； hazard function ； maximum likelihood estimation ； censored data ； optimal probability hazard threshold

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