天然氣價合理化對天然氣需求及台灣經濟之影響

The Effect of Rationalized Pricing on the Demand for National Gas and the Economy of Taiwan

梁啟源(Chi-yuan Liang)

《石油季刊》 39卷1期 (2003/03) Pp. 135-145

https://doi.org/10.30128/JP.200303.0012

摘要

本文的目的在評估透過降低關稅、貨物稅，並延長設備折舊期間一倍對天然氣價的可能下調幅度，並進而評估天然氣價下跌此一幅度後，對各別產業與整體經濟對天然氣需求及物價、成長之影響。最後提出政策建議。
本研究所用的政策模擬模型為Liang and Jorgenson (2003)的台灣動態一般均衡模型(Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Taiwan)。該模型係結合梁啟源(民 89)的台灣能源經濟模型，行政院主計處總體經濟計量模型及工研院MARKAL工程模型而建立。

關鍵字

天然氣價格 ； 天然氣需求 ； 一般均衡模型

並列摘要

The objective of this paper is to estimate the potential magnitude in natural gas price adjustment if tariff and excise are reduced and the duration for depreciation is doubled. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of price decrease in natural gas on the demand for natural gas and the economy. For this, a dynamic general equilibrium model of Taiwan (DGEMT) or Liang-Jorgenson model (2001) is employed.
The major findings are:
If tariff and excise are reduced and the duration for depreciation is doubled, the price of natural gas can decrease by 5.53% to 12.56%.
As a result, the general price level (GDP deflator) will decrease by 0.03% to 0.08%, while the economic growth will increase by 0.01 % to 0.03%. And the demand for natural gas will rise by 2.5% to 5.8%. Consequently, government should carry out the policy of rationalizing the natural gas price as quickly as possible.

並列關鍵字

Natural gas price ； Natural gas demand ； General equilibrium modeling