從數據科學觀點探討中華職棒球員與球團效率管理

A Study of efficiency management for players and teams in CPBL from the viewpoint of data science

林文斌(Wen-Bin Lin) ； 葉劭緯(Shao-Wei Yeh) ； 楊鎮浯(Cheng-Wu Yang)

《體育學報》 50卷S期 (2017/12) Pp. 91-107

https://doi.org/10.3966/10247297201712500S007

摘要

緒論：在數據科學逐漸受到各領域重視之際，如何透過將數據科學的概念結合應用到運動的訓練與發展上，亦開始受到研究人員的關注，而數據科學的大數據適用於棒球運動嗎？美國職棒大聯盟強調數據分析的「魔球」、破除「貝比魯斯魔咒」與「山羊魔咒」等已提供明顯例證。本研究從數據科學觀點、結合效率與生產力概念，探討中華職業棒球聯盟，黃衫球衣是否影響球賽勝負並創造最多球迷？原住民球員的表現是否超越其他非原住民球員？二軍球員能夠穩定在一軍出賽並貢獻戰力的人力為何？等三項迷思。方法：運用資料包絡分析法、Mann-Whitney U Test、邏輯斯迴歸、信賴區間等方法求取相關結果、並提出具體建議。結果：一、2014 年球季例行賽，黃衫球衣並未左右中華職棒勝負。二、2014年中職賽場，原住民球員表現並未較佳。三、2014 年球季，二軍球員確實值得重用。在95%信賴區間，調升一軍規律出賽、穩定貢獻球隊戰力的二軍打者共計19 人、堪用率19.19%。在95% 信賴區間，調升一軍規律出賽、穩定貢獻球隊戰力的投手共計14 人、堪用率16.67%。結論：經營者 (管理者) 勇於打破成規、「重新思考」球場規則，以數據科學的觀點，透過資料庫的資訊、落實數據與效率管理，或是積極尋找球場規則中「無效率」的空隙，達到破解迷思並提升管理效能之目標。

關鍵字

黃衫球衣 ； 原住民球員 ； 二軍 ； 效率與生產力

並列摘要

Introduction: Because of the innovations of information technology, the topics of data science had raised more and more important nowadays, more researchers had interest in how integrate the conception and approaches of data science in order to discover useful information for their domain. How and what kinds of innovated value and useful information that data science could provide for research and training program had also become an important topic of researchers included data mining, big data, machine learning. Was Big Data suitable for use in baseball? The statistical analysis of ＂Money-ball＂, ＂Curse of the Bambino＂, and ＂Curse of the Billy Goat＂ in Major League Baseball were apparent examples. Does a yellow shirt influence of winning games and to attract fans? Do aborigine players perform better than other players? How is the actual ratio of minor league players dedicated as rosters for CPBL regular season games? This study intended to explore three major myths of CPBL from the viewpoint of data science in sports and efficiency and productivity. Methods: Following the structure of data science, we used data envelopment analysis, Mann-Whitney U Test, logistic regression, and the confidence interval to figure out the results and suggestions. Results: 1. The yellow shirt didn't influence of winning games during 2014 season. 2. The aborigine players didn't show up better performance than other players during 2014 season. 3. In 95% confidence interval, there were totally 19 minor league fielders (19.19%) promoted and dedicated to CPBL regular season rotation. In 95% CI confidence interval, there were totally 14 minor league pitchers (16.67%) promoted and dedicated to 2014 CPBL regular season. Conclusion: Base on the conception of data sciences, according to the database information, concrete data, and efficiency management, the manager should reconsider traditional rules, and actively to find out inefficient gaps, in order to break down the myths and improve management efficiency.

並列關鍵字

yellow shirts ； aborigine players ； minor league ； efficiency and productivity

參考文獻

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