投票意願與經濟不景氣：台灣的情形

Voter Turnout and Economic Adversity in Taiwan

楊孟麗(Meng-Li Yang)

《選舉研究》 10卷2期 (2003/11) Pp. 159-191

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.2003.10.02.159-191

摘要

本文主要探討經濟不景氣對投票率的影響，除了檢測關於不景氣時的投票率之三個互斥的假設外，並藉用與延伸經濟投票的模式以瞭解哪些心理因素會使投票意願降低。在此之前則先建構台灣不投票選民的側面圖，以作為前者的基礎。方法則是以二層線性輯迴歸模式分析「2001年選舉與民主化調查研究」資料。研究結果無法支持三個互斥理論中的任何一個。而對自已與社會、過去與未來的經濟環境的評估中，只有對社會未來的經濟環境抱持悲觀態度者會有較低的投票意願，其他三種評估都沒有影響，與經濟投票的研究中，只有未來大環境的評估會影響投票方向的發現相若；但如果選民抱持積極態度或明確歸因於執政黨者，則投票意願較高。至於側面圖方面，一般而言，台灣的選民投票意願不受職業與收入的影響。但教育程度愈高者，愈傾向於不投票，與美國的發現不同。而投票意願隨著年齡增長而增加。女性與參加工會社團等組織對於增高投票意願的影響則在顯著邊緣，另一方面，選民對於政府、制度及政治的觀感都不影響投票意願；倒是選民對政治愈熱衷，政治知識愈高及黨派傾向愈濃，則投票意願愈高。

關鍵字

投票率 ； 經濟不景氣 ； 多層線性邏輯迴歸模式

並列摘要

I investigated the effects of adversity on voter turnout in Taiwan. In addition to testing three exclusive hypotheses regarding turnout in economic adversity, I borrowed and expanded the economic voting theory to better understand the effects. Before doing this, I also constructed a non-voting electorate’s profile, to serve as a base for the economic adversity model. Date were drawn from the ’2001 Taiwan Election and Democratization Survey’ and analyzed in a 2-level logistic regression model. The result did not support any of the three hypotheses. Pessimistic views of future economic condition reduced turnout possibility, which was similar to the ’sociotropic voting’ theory in that only perception of the society’s future matters in the voting decision. Attributing the problem to the government and naming economy as the first priority for improvement significantly improved voting probability. Regarding the non-voting electorate’s profile, older people and less educated people were more likely to vote. This last finding was contradictory to American literature. Women and membership in unions or social groups marginally improved turnout rate. As to psychological factors, only electorate’s own interest in politics, political knowledge and partisanship were effective factors for turnout; evaluations and the system and government responsiveness did not matter.

並列關鍵字

Turnout ； economic adversity ； logistic regression ； HLM

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