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她們為什麼投給馬英九?探討2008年總統大選的性別差距

Why Do Women Vote for Ma? The Gender Gap in the 2008 Presidential Election

摘要


2008年總統大選,是台灣總統直選以來,首次出現大規模且顯著的性別差異,女性選民以選票支持馬英九,影響了此次總統大選結果。本研究試圖探討此次投票性別差距的主因,透過理論探討,本文進行資料分析,首先比較了一般投票研究中的相關解釋因素-候選人、政策議題、個人社會經濟條件、與政黨認同,是否存在性別差異;再者,透過Logit Model分析,檢視這些因素的性別差異,是否爲解釋投票性別差異的主要因素。研究發現,雖然兩性在候選人評價、某些政策議題、部分社會經濟條件,以及政黨認同上,皆存在顯著的性別差異(自變數確實存在性別差異),然而不必然會完全轉化爲投票上的性別差異。解釋兩性投票性別差距的主要因素,在於男性相對於女性更會受到政黨認同的影響,女性相較於男性不認同泛綠,即使認同泛綠的女性也較男性有跨黨投票的傾向,此解釋了兩性投票差異的結果。本文進而分別檢視政黨認同與候選人因素,以及政黨認同與政策議題的關係,資料結果顯示,候選人因素並非是政黨認同性別差異影響投票性別差異的原因;相對地,在社會福利以及環保經濟政策議題上,女性選民與藍綠政黨較爲等距的關係,也可能會鬆動既有政黨認同對投票的影響力,或許是進而造成投票性別差異的背後原因。

並列摘要


Since the direct presidential election was held in Taiwan 12 years ago, for the first time a significant voting gender gap appeared in the 2008 presidential election. Women voters supported candidate Ma which boosted him winning the president election. This study attempts to explore why there was such a substantial gender gap in that election. To explain the gender gap, we first compared the factors in explaining voting decision-candidate evaluation, issue positions, socioeconomic factors, and party identification, to see if gender gap exists in these factors. Furthermore, we applied the logit models to examine whether gender differences in these factors lead to voting gender gap. The models show that although gender gaps were evident on voters' candidate evaluation, party identification, some issue positions and socioeconomic conditions, not all of these differences translated into voting gender gaps. Gender differences in party identification remained the strongest factor in explaining gender difference in voting choices. Comparatively, the voting gender gap caused by party identification is evident in that women were less likely to identify with pan-Green party, and pan-Green women might vote across their party line. We further examine respectively the interaction between voters' party identification and candidate factor, and the interaction between voters' party identification and issue evaluation. The results show that candidate factor is not the underlying factor linking the gender gap in party identification and voting gender gap. But the distance of issue positions between voters and parties/candidates on social welfare and environment might explain why women voters identify differently from men with parties and how these differences transfer into voting gender gaps.

參考文獻


黃秀端(2005)。候選人形象、候選人情感溫度計、與總統選民投票行爲。台灣民主季刊。2(4),1-30。
陳陸輝(2003)。政治信任、施政表現與民衆對台灣民主的展望。台灣政治學刊。7(2),149-188。
盛杏湲(2002)。統獨議題與台灣選民的投票行爲:一九九○年代的分析。選舉研究。9(1),41-80。
盛治仁(2000)。總統選舉預測探討—以情感溫度計預測未表態選民的應用。選舉研究。7(2),75-107。
陳陸輝(2000)。台灣選民政黨認同的持續與變遷。選舉研究。7(2),65-84。

被引用紀錄


沈芯菱(2015)。影響總統施政民意因素在重大事件中之探討〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2015.11101
張義(2015)。我國總統選舉政治獻金之實證研究_以第13任總統選舉為例〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2015.00050
徐嘉璘(2012)。社會階級與投票抉擇—以2008年總統選舉分析〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2012.00508
邱德隆(2011)。空間分析應用於族群政黨投票之研究〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2011.01493

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