臺灣閒置空間與執政黨連任得票率關係研究－以2004和2012總統選舉為例

A Study of the Association between the Idle Space and the Voting Rate of the Re-election of the Ruling Party in Taiwan-Examples from the 2004 and 2012 Presidential Elections

吳文彥(Wen-Yen Wu)

《選舉研究》 27卷2期 (2020/11) Pp. 127-175

https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.202011_27(2).0004

摘要

本文研究目的在檢討基礎設施公共投資成為閒置空間成因和公共投資與總統選舉得票率關係。研究應用結構化理論，篩選公共工程委員會閒置空間資料440筆，取用政府開放資訊經社屬性資料。使用空間分析方法建立2004年，2012年二次總統選舉得票率解釋模型進行分析。研究發現，公共投資與總統選舉得票率關係顯著且為正向關係。依照結構化理論解釋，在分配政治下，公共投資成為剪綵政治媒介與盲目投資。選舉政治考量優於市場評估，選舉動員「儀式」和消耗預算制度慣性，解釋閒置空間成因所在。亟待建立專業理性評估、社區參與、資訊揭露、公共監督與課責機制，改善選舉政治干預公共投資現象。

關鍵字

閒置空間 ； 公共投資 ； 結構化理論 ； 空間分析 ； 選舉文化

並列摘要

This study aims to review the causes of infrastructure becoming an idle space and the relationship between public investment and the voting rate in presidential elections. The research applied structuration theory as an analysis framework, and screened 440 items of idle space data of the Public Works Committee, and used the socio-economic statistical data of the important indicators of the Open Data in Government networks. The spatial analysis method is used to establish the vote-rate model in 2004 and 2012 for analysis. The research results show that there is a significant and positive relationship between public investment and vote rate in presidential campaigns. According to the structuration theoretical explanation, under distribution politics, public investment has become a form of ribbon-cutting media and blind investment. Electoral political considerations are better than market assessments. The ＂ritual＂ of election mobilization and the habitus of the system that consumes budgets explain the cause of idle space. There is an urgent need to establish professional rational assessment, community participation, information disclosure, public supervision, and accountability mechanisms to improve the phenomenon of political interference in elections and public investment.

並列關鍵字

Idle Space ； Public Investment ； Structuration ； Spatial Analysis ； Electoral Culture

參考文獻

Dintrans, Pablo. Villalobos. 2018. “Do Long-Term Care Services Match Population Needs? A Spatial Analysis of Nursing Homes in Chile.” 13(6): e0199522. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0199522 (accessed March 23, 2019).

Doherty, Jacob. 2018. “Why Is This Trash Can Yelling at Me? Big Bellies and Clean Green Gentrification.” https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19428200.2018.1437983 (accessed March 23, 2019).

Lewis Beck, Michael. S. 2006. “Does Economics Still Matter? Econometrics and the Vote.” The Journal of Politics. 68(1):208-212. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2006.00381.x (accessed March 28, 2019).

O@@$$Loughlin, John. 2002. “The Electoral Geography of Weimar Germany: Exploratory Spatial Data Analyses (ESDA) of Protestant Support for the Nazi Party.”https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/10.3.217 (accessed June 20, 2017).

393公共平台，2019，〈統籌分配款，怎麼統籌？怎麼分配？（上）〉，http://www.393citizen.com/financial/Coma/columndt.php?id=519。檢索日期2019年8月15日。(393gong gong ping tai, 2019 “tong chou fen pei kuan, zen me tong chou ? zen me fen pei ?(shang) ”.[ How to Coordinate the Allocation of Funds? How to Allocate?(1)] . 393 CITIZEN.com. http://www.393citizen.com/financial/Coma/columndt.php?id=519 [accessed August 15, 2019].)