全球溫暖化對畢祿溪試驗集水區河川流量衝擊評估

The Impact of Global Warming on Streamflows in Piluchi Experimental Watershed

林俊成(Jiunn-Cheng Lin) ； 李國忠(Kou-Chung J. Lee)

《台灣林業科學》 15卷1期 (2000/03) Pp. 51-60

https://doi.org/10.7075/TJFS.200003.0051

摘要

大氣中二氧化碳濃度增加造成全球溫暖化已廣為世人所關注，當二氧化碳濃度倍增時，地球表面溫度預估將上昇1至5℃，為了解全球溫暖化與河川流量關係，本文使用日溫度及降雨量資料，利用水平衡模式模擬河川流量，並以大氣環流模式(General Circulation Model, GCM)預測值進行溫度及降雨量資料修正，分析當大氣中二氧化碳濃度倍增時，對畢祿溪試驗集水區河川流量的衝擊。結果顯示：在考慮修正溫度與降雨量統計特性時，河川年流量將增加4.4至25.16%，但時間的分配上則極不一致，豐水期河川流量增加，枯水期則減少，豐枯水期河川流量的差距將加大，對水資源的利用及調配極為不利。

關鍵字

全球溫暖化 ； 大氣環流模式 ； 水平衡模式

並列摘要

Increasing concerns have been raised in recent years that soaring concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere may cause global warming. Experiments show that once CO2's concentrations is doubled, the Earth's temperature is predicted to rise 1 to 5 °C. In order to understand the relationship between global warming and streamflows, the Water Balanced Model is applied in this paper to simulate streamflows; the General Circulation Model prediction values are used to adjust the data of temperature and precipitation. With the result of such application, then, the impact on Piluchi Experimental Watershed is further analyzed, supposing that CO2's concentrations is doubled. The results show that, if the adjusted temperature and the statistical characteristics of precipitation are taken into account, streamflows may increase 4.4% to 25.16% annually, while varying in different periods throughout the year. The model indicates that streamflows may rise in wet periods and fall in drought periods. In brief, climate changes will produce negative effects on water resources utilization and reallocation.

並列關鍵字

global warming ； General Circulation Model (GCM) ； Water Balance Model