把「政黨」找回來：台灣選舉研究的失衡與未來發展

Bring the Parties Back In: The Imbalance and Future of Electoral Studies in Taiwan

劉從葦(Tsung-Wei Liu)

《台灣政治學刊》 17卷2期 (2013/12) Pp. 115-163

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.201312.17(2).115-163

摘要

本文以內容分析法檢視台灣六份主要政治學期刊中關於選舉的文章，發現多數文章都以「選民」為研究對象、研究方法上以「大樣本的抽樣調查」為主流、並一面倒地使用「統計分析」。對於這樣的集體現象，本文從研究對象、研究方法與分析方法三個面向來探討如何讓選舉研究有更多的選擇並且多元發展。首先，政黨不應該在選舉研究中被忽視，因為選舉是政黨爭取選民支持的過程，忽視政黨就無法勾勒完整的選舉過程。第二，抽樣調查不是研究方法的唯一選擇，尤其是關於研究政黨時經常會遇到因為樣本數少而導致抽樣與資料變異程度不足的困難，其實可以採用由偏重個案取向的小樣本研究社群所提出的方法論來解決。第三，統計分析並不是分析經驗資料的唯一方法，當資料的樣本數少且低度變異時，統計分析往往派不上用場，集合理論反而是比較有效的分析工具。最後，要讓政黨成為研究焦點，除了引入更多研究方法與分析方法外，短期內最重要也最有效的方法就是建置政黨資料庫供學者使用，因此介紹目前規模最大的國際比較政黨計畫（International Comparative Political Parties Project, ICPP）以及以其為範本的台灣政黨體系的持續與變遷整合型計畫。

關鍵字

政黨 ； 小樣本研究 ； 集合理論 ； 比較政黨計畫

並列摘要

This paper examines articles on elections published in six Taiwanese journals on political science by using content analysis. The results show that what these articles have in common is that they focus on 'voters', using 'survey data', and they analyze data using 'statistical methods'. This research therefore argues, firstly, that political parties should not be ignored in electoral studies, because elections are the process by which political parties try to attract voters. The picture of electoral competition will not be complete without political parties. Secondly, a survey is one, and not the only, method of collecting data. Collecting large-n samples is usually not possible when studying political parties, and so the case-oriented method of small-n may be more appropriate. Thirdly, statistical methods are not the only way to analyze data. When encountering data for small-n samples with a low degree of variance, set theory is better than statistics. Finally, in order to pursue methodological plurality, the most important and efficient strategy in the short term is to establish a data base on political parties. In closing, this paper discusses the International Comparative Political Parties (ICPP) and the integrated project on Change and Continuity in Taiwan's Political Parties (CCTPP).

並列關鍵字

Political Parties ； Small-n ； Set Theory ； ICPP

參考文獻

台灣選舉與民主化調查，2011，〈台灣選舉與民主化調查〉，http://www.tedsnet.org/cubekm1/front/bin/home.phtml，查閱時間：2011/08/31。Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS). “Taiwan xuanju yu minzhuhua diaocha” [Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study]. (Accessed on August 31, 2011).

International Comparative Political Parties Project (ICPP). 2011.“Home Page of the ICPP Project.” http://janda.org/ICPP/index.htm (August 31, 2011).

McCallum, R. B., and Alison Readman. 1947. The British General Election of 1945. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

Adams, James,Merrell, Samuel, III,Grofman, Bernard(2005).A Unified Theory of Party Competition.Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.

Aldrich, John H.(1995).Why Parties?.Chicago, IL:University of Chicago Press.